Slovak populist Prime Minister Robert Fico expects an agreement between the European Union and Slovakia could be reached on Tuesday, July 15, over Slovakia lifting its veto of the EU’s 18^th round of sanctions against Russia.

As bne IntelliNews covered previously, Slovak diplomats continue to block the sanctions package and demand energy guarantees from the EU in connection with the phase-out of Russian fossil fuel imports, which the EU announced in May.

“If we support the sanctions package, it will be because we reached an agreement with the EU” regarding energy guarantees, Fico stated at a press conference on July 12, which was also streamed on Fico’s Facebook social media page.

Fico made the comments following a telephone call with the German chancellor, Friedrich Merz, who on July 10 called on "Slovakia and its Prime Minister to give up the resistance and to free the way” for the sanctions package.

Fico also stated: “I am ready to block the sanctions” if there is no agreement regarding energy guarantees “even at a cost of a great crisis,” saying “nobody will help Slovakia unless there are guarantees,” and noting he allegedly told Merz: “Mr Chancellor, Friedrich, I am sorry but this is not my first day in politics.”

The implementation of the EU’s phase-out does not require a unanimous decision of the bloc, and Fico stated in his opening remarks that he “connected the two issues” – the phase-out plan and sanctions package, reiterating that Slovakia has no issue supporting the sanctions package itself.

The Slovak PM said that “if we don’t get guarantees now, there won’t be enough gas in 2028,” and concrete “steps must be taken now” if Slovakia is to secure affordable energy beyond 2027 and safeguard itself against a potential lawsuit with the Russian giant Gazprom.   

Slovakia has a valid contract with Gazprom until 2034, under which the Russian side is committed to bringing its gas to Slovakia for free, covering gas transit fees all the way to the Slovak border. 

Fico claimed Slovakia would face a lawsuit “for €16bn” if it steps away from the valid contract and also argued that it will incur “more expensive transit fees,” saying he was acting in the “national state interest” and that “we have never been in such a situation before,” stressing that in the past Slovakia has served as a key gas transit hub.  

Slovakia nearly eradicated Russian gas imports during the winter of 2022-2023, but imports spiked following the return of the Fico-led government in the autumn of 2023. Previously, Fico also argued that Slovak gas transmission utility Eustream would lose income from gas transit fees. Czech energy and media oligarch Daniel Křetínský’s EPH has a 49% stake and managerial control in Eustream, while Slovakia retains 51%.

Local analysts argue that it is the lobbying influence of EPH over Fico’s cabinet in combination with Fico’s Smer party’s reliance on the anti-establishment electorate, which in Slovakia is traditionally anti-western and has a strong pro-Russian element, that pushes Fico to keep the Smer electorate mobilised by claiming that Slovakia would find itself in an energy crisis if the EU phase-out plan is implemented.

This winter, Fico had also picked up a long-awaited end to a Russian gas transit through Ukraine to step up his anti-Ukrainian rhetoric.

During the press conference, Fico also phase-out by January 1 2028, is an “ideological” and “nonsensical decision,” driven by “obsession against Russia.” He said that currently, the energy “diversification is at a stage when each country can choose where it gets its gas from,” and also highlighted that Slovakia is a landlocked country, which makes LNG imports more costly.   

“I want to see a statement from the EU,” showing that it is aware of “the threat re-powering poses for the EU,” Fico also stated.

Regional leaders have also criticised Fico for his stance, including Czech Prime Minister Petr Fiala and Lithuanian Minister of Foreign Affairs Kestutis Budrys.

Czech disinformation and political analyst Pavel Havlíček of the Prague-based Association for International Affairs (AMO) told independent Slovak online news outlet 360ka.sk that Fico’s behaviour is regularly picked up and “amplified by Russian state propaganda.”

As bne IntelliNews covered, Fico has also made unprecedented appearances on Russian state media, and has become one of the most quoted European leaders in the pro-Kremlin outlets.