An unmanned aircraft (UAV) from Belarus, built from plywood and foam, crashed in Nato member Lithuania and caused alarm there, which scrambled fighter jets as its air force went on alert. However, they were immediately stood down once the drone was identified as harmless, reported Reuters on July 10.

It turns out that the drone was probably home-made, flown by some enthusiast who lost control of it. But in the tense situation in northern Europe, officials were being careful while the threat of war looms in the region.

"The object does not pose any danger now, but we don't yet know what its purpose was," Lithuanian armed forces spokesperson Gintautas Ciunis told a press conference.

Nevertheless, security forces scrambled Prime Minister Gintautas Paluckas and Seimas Speaker Saulius Skvernelis to the safety of protective shelters because of the presence of this unidentified object entering Lithuanian airspace.

The Baltic states have been expecting a Russian invasion of their territory via Belarus for years. Belarus appears equally terrified of a Nato incursion. Lukashenko has constantly warned of an imminent invasion and has even put the whole country on military alert on at least one occasion in the last three years. And again, on June 11 the Belarus Ministry of Defence warned Nato had brought 19 battle-ready battalions up to the borders of Belarus and Russia in preparation for an attack.

Chief of the Belarusian General Staff and First Deputy Defence Minister Pavel Muraveyko claimed: “The deployment of battalion tactical groups has begun now, and their number only continues to grow. Now there are 19 of them in Europe, and ten of them are stationed in neighbouring countries.”

He also noted that "this is a serious force, which, under certain circumstances … is capable of carrying out some sort of a provocation."

Both of the threats – a Belarusian hobbyist’s homemade drone crashing in Lithuania and the 19 battalions stationed on Belarus’ border – have only added fuel to a fire of mistrust and uncertainty in a region that has been riven by the war in Ukraine and escalating military tensions between Nato and the Kremlin.

Lukashenko’s war rhetoric: a shield for domestic control

Belarusian President Alexander Lukashenko has long portrayed his country as being under siege, frequently invoking the “enemies at the gate” mantra. This pattern of alarmism has been a consistent feature of his leadership. After facing mass protests in 2020 that seriously challenged his rule, Lukashenko has tightened his repressive grip on power to maintain his hold on power. Using military readiness as a political tool, he has repeatedly escalated rhetoric about external threats to justify his crackdowns and bolster his image as the protector of Belarus.

Lukashenko put Belarus on a country-wide military amidst the mass protests following the disputed August 9 election in 2020 – in what many analysts interpret as a very expensive and totally pointless piece of political theatre. Russia been transformed into a war economy, but it is still run on market lines. Belarus is going in the opposite direction, one that is increasingly run on Soviet-lines and adopting the Orwellian “constant war” rhetoric.

These declarations often coincide with periods of internal pressure or geopolitical tension. However, Nato has never shown any inkling of wanting to invade Belarus. Lukashenko’s repeated warnings are a strategic narrative rather than a response to genuine military threat, aimed primarily at shoring up his domestic standing and rallying public support.

Nato’s military buildup: deterrence or escalation?

Nato, for its part, is using some of the same tools. It has beefed up its posture in response to growing tensions with Russia. While Belarus and Russia often accuse the West of aggression, Nato countries argue they are in fact reacting to real threats.

The European Union has firmly backed Ukraine, both economically and militarily, effectively supporting what many see as a proxy war between Russia and the West. This support has included billions in military aid, sanctions against Russia, and expanded cooperation between Nato and Ukraine.

In response to the perceived rising threats, Nato recently agreed to significantly increase military spending, with some member states committing up to 5% of their GDP to defence at the Nato summit in the Hague. The move is driven by growing fears of a broader expansion beyond Ukraine, possibly into the Baltics or other Eastern European countries.

These concerns were echoed in a leaked German Bundeswehr (armed forces) report, which suggested that a Russian military incursion into Nato territory could occur within the next five years.

Russian Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov strongly denied these claims and accused Western governments of “deliberately scaremongering and constructing a narrative that portrays Russia as a global threat.”

As Nato and Russia continue to build up their forces and rhetoric, the line between provocation and accident grows thinner. With leaders on all sides expecting the worst, the potential for miscalculation becomes dangerously real. In such an environment, a stray drone – whether from an amat€or an adversary – serves as a reminder of how fragile peace in Europe has become. And as the standoff hardens, even minor incidents risk being viewed through the lens of imminent conflict, pushing the region closer to the brink.