A congress of the Kurdistan Workers’ Party (PKK) resolved to end all activities conducted in the name of the PKK, the militant organisation said on May 12.

The announcement included an additional note: “The congress decided to dissolve the PKK’s organisational structure and end its armed struggle.”

Observers might speak of weasel words. If the PKK is dissolved, its armed struggle, waged against Turkey for 40 years partly from hideouts in northern Iraq and Syria, disappears with it. However, the wording does not mean that the PKK's guns will not be used under a different name.

Regime runs powerful PR machine

The end of an armed struggle, particularly when it is boosted by a powerful public relations machine such as that run by Turkey's Erdogan regime, is not a headline that the media, which nowadays has pretty much lost the plot in its frenzied pursuit of clicks-and-more-clicks generation, can resist. As a result, here we have another episode in which  Erdogan and his acolytes have trolled the minority on the planet that still insists on taking the media ever so seriously.

Lately, Erdogan, by all accounts, is in the vanguard of the race to end the Ukraine War, while, in his great and bestriding wisdom, he has also opted to not declare war against either Israel or Greece, if some of the media brethren are to be believed.

No market impact

Post hoc fallacy is among the main tools employed in media analysis together with free association.

Turkish stocks jumped, bonds climbed and the lira rallied against the euro on reports that the PKK, proscribed as a terrorist group by Turkey, the US, UK and EU, had decided to disband, Reuters reported.

Markets globally were enjoying a broader surge after the US and China struck a deal to slash tariffs, the news service added.

A quick note here. There was no lira "rally" against the euro. There was a limited move in the EUR/TRY pair that was related to a move in the EUR/USD pair, given that all currencies in the world are priced against the USD and the cross-pairs are set based on the pricing against the USD.

The limited move in Turkey’s bonds was also related to the global market moves.

The jump in Turkey’s stock market was, meanwhile, without any doubt related to the government’s PR campaign on PKK developments as this particular market is under full government control and can be moved with the spending of some lira.

The entire market was going up while arms maker Aselsan’s share price was heading down. According to the Turkish media, this was because Erdogan had solved the Kurdish question and he was also set to end the Ukraine War.

“Is [the PKK’s announcement] decisive for the difficult Turkish investment case?” Reuters quoted Christopher Granville of TS Lombard as saying. 

The PKK issue was ultimately “secondary” to questions raised by Turkey's arrest of Erdogan's main political rival, Istanbul Mayor Ekrem Imamoglu, and also to the broader direction of Turkey macroeconomic policy, according to Granville.

PKK name not in use since 2002

In 2002, a few years after the CIA handed over PKK leader Abdullah Ocalan to Turkey’s intelligence service MIT in 1999, the PKK changed its name to the Kurdistan Freedom and Democracy Congress (KADEK), while announcing that it had ended the armed struggle.

It was a logical move as the PKK was designated a terrorist organisation by many countries and its leader was held by Turkey’s government.

Since the 1990s, the PKK has been using dozens of different combinations of three letters, including the KCK, YPG, PYD and HPG among others, to overcome problems caused by the terrorist organisation designation.

Founded in 1978

The PKK was founded in 1978 while armed conflicts launched by dozens of leftist and counter-guerilla groups were surrounding and bothering the country during tense periods of the Cold War.

The group moved to Syria just before the 1980 military coup bulldozed all the insurgents in Turkey. Effectively, post-coup, the PKK was left as the only illegal force fighting against the Turkish state.

In 1984, the PKK declared war against the Turkish state. At the beginning of the 1990s, it reached the peak of its military effectiveness. For the PKK, an insurgent group, it was time to launch talks with the enemy.

Turkey’s then president, Turgut Ozal, attempted to hold talks with the PKK. However, with his death in 1993, the state launched irregular warfare conducted by paramilitary organisations.

After its leader was captured by the state in 1999, the PKK entered a transformation process, summarised above.

Stakeholders in regime since 2009

In 2009, the Erdogan regime launched initiatives to attract votes from marginalised groups in the country. Among them were the Kurds and the PKK.

Since then, the PKK has been a stakeholder in the regime. It has served occasionally. For instance, it assisted the ruling coalition by serving as an agent of controlled violence when the regime required a bloody deed.

Thanks to the coalition, the PKK was essentially able to found a state in northern Syria under US patronage. Now it is time for the Erdogan regime to recognise that political entity.

In exchange, the PKK is awarding another victory to the regime. Observe, this is not the first time that the PKK has announced the end of its armed activities. However, the media has a memory of 24 hours. So, every few years, the same "victory" can be circulated as if it was the first such "victory".

Coalition against Imamoglu

The regime has lately been conducting an operation to eliminate a genuine obstacle, namely Istanbul's mayor Imamoglu. It is a big operation as Imamoglu, who was jailed in March, has tens of millions of supporters. The regime needs to move carefully. Its actions can attract international reactions. 

To strengthen the ruling coalition, the regime has been moving to attract the support of the Kurds in Turkey as well as the support of the Kurds’ international partners (formally present in the fight against Islamic State) such as the US and the EU.

The latest announcement by the PKK allows the regime to argue at home that it won a victory against the PKK and that it is time to legitimise the Kurds. Meanwhile, it can champion its peace efforts whenever a foreign partner attempts to talk about Imamoglu.

Kurds want a nation state

An actual end to the Kurdish conflict is entirely impossible at this stage as the Kurds desire a nation state. They de facto have emergent states in northern Iraq and northern Syria.

Following World War I, the Kurds were divided among four states. Two parts have so far been “liberated”. The next part will be Kurdistan province in Iran. Will the day come when these three parts plus the part in Turkey could enter into some kind of federation? The Kurds will dream on. Any peace will be transitory.