The countries of Central Asia have become “like a girl whose house is full of suitors”, according to Kazakh political scientist Dosum Satbayev.

“There are many suitors, and they all promise something to the bride. China, the USA, China and European countries, Russia and India are all offering the region various projects and investment programmes,” Radio Ozodlik on June 18 reported Satbayev as saying.

Satbayev was speaking as the Second China-Central Asia wrapped up Astana, following the signing of a treaty on elevating ties between Beijing and Kazakhstan, Uzbekistan, Kyrgyzstan, Tajikistan and Turkmenistan by Chinese President Xi Jinping and his Central Asian counterparts.

Nowadays, it feels that hardly a month goes by without a summit between the Central Asia Five and a major power. Since Russia invaded Ukraine in February 2022, causing economic consequences that thrust Central Asia into the spotlight as an alternative trade route, and since the world’s unrelenting need for, and Central Asia’s abundance of, critical minerals including rare earths became apparent, something of a scramble has developed to win favour in the region’s capitals.

The past two years have brought Central Asia summits and/or major visits conducted by powers including the US (ex-president Joe Biden hosted Central Asia’s presidents in New York), France, Germany, the UK, Italy, Turkey, South Korea, Russia, the EU, and, of course, China.

Added Satbayev: “Today, the priorities for strategic players have also changed. One of the main topics discussed at all summits is rare earth minerals. From an investment point of view, in the current situation, the countries of the region have the opportunity to launch large investment projects.

“However, how long these investors will stay will depend on the internal political and economic situation in the countries of the region.”

Russia, regarding Central Asia, as it does, as its traditional sphere of influence is clearly none too happy at the growing political and economic links between various powers and Astana, Tashkent, Bishkek, Dushanbe and Ashgabat, but given the time and energy the waging of war on Ukraine, and the running of a heavily sanctioned war economy, consumes, there is only so much Moscow can do to remind ex-Soviet Central Asia’s leaders where loyalties should generally lie. 

On a related note, the Central Asia – Caucasus Institute (CACI) at the American Foreign Policy Council (AFPC) recently hosted a webinar titled "Is Central Asia Stable?"

Institute director Svante Cornell looked at how the episodes of violence that occurred in the region during 2022 served as a reminder as to how the region remains vulnerable to internal and external forces that can have devastating effects. As detailed in his paper, the incidents included the “Bloody January” riots in Kazakhstan that spread from the west to Almaty; Tajikistan's May crackdown in Khorog, the capital of the Gorno-Badakshan Autonomous Oblast (GBAO); the July protests in Uzbekistan's Karakalpakstan region; and the September flare-up of the longrunning border conflict between Kyrgyzstan and Tajikistan (this year brought to a close with a previously elusive agreement on the frontier).

In a recap of the webinar, CACI said the question was whether these instances of violence “were isolated remnants of COVID-induced unrest or indicators of larger regional instability.

“Despite these examples, Dr. Cornell noted that other forms of violence had not been apparent in Central Asia, such as large interstate conflicts, foreign-sponsored separatism, military coups, and Islamic militancy”.

Cornell, said the CACI, also discussed “the negative effects of Russia's malign influence in fomenting instability in Central Asia”.

Nargis Kassenova, director of the Program on Central Asia at the Davis Center for Russian and Eurasian Studies at Harvard University, “contrasted this with China's role as a stabilizing force in the region, noting that China acted more predictably and with a longer strategic horizon than Russia. Due to its geographic position, China had a self-interest in promoting security cooperation, as Central Asia bordered Xinjiang, and in fostering regional connectivity to facilitate trade [said Kassenova].”

CACI summarised that Kassnova concluded that following Russia's 2022 invasion of Ukraine, “China's endorsement of regional sovereignty became even more important.

“At the same time, anti-China sentiment among Central Asian populations limited China's reach in regional politics. Dr. Kassenova also noted that Central Asia found itself caught between U.S.-China rivalry, attempting to benefit from partnerships with both states while maintaining non-aligned status”.