Romania’s economy is expected to grow by just 1.3% in 2025, down from a 2.1% expansion projected in January, according to the Global Economic Prospects report published by the World Bank on June 10. This is close to the government's 1.4% revised forecast issued in May. 

The bank also lowered its 2026 growth forecast for Romania to 1.9%, down from the previous estimate of 2.6%. ING and Erste Group have also lowered their forecasts for Romania. 

Romania’s GDP has increased by an average of 0.1 q/q over the past five quarters to Q1 2025, when it posted a meagre 0.3% y/y advance and quarterly standstill (+0% q/q) according to data published by the statistics office on June 6

The revised projections mark a reduction of 0.7 to 0.8 percentage points for both years and place Romania among the weakest-performing economies in Europe and Central Asia. In 2025, only Moldova is expected to post slower growth in the region, while in 2026, Romania is forecast to outperform only Belarus.

According to the World Bank, Romania’s economy is projected to return to a more natural growth trajectory of 2.5% in 2027.

“In contrast to other subregions, and despite a challenging external environment, growth in Central Europe is forecast to firm to 2.4% in 2025,” the report states. It highlights Poland as a key growth driver in the region, supported by robust domestic demand and a more favourable external trade environment.

Romania’s weaker outlook is in contrast with the overall Central European region, which is expected to see stronger growth between 2025 and 2027, supported in part by Germany’s newly legislated fiscal stimulus. Germany absorbs approximately 22% of Central Europe’s exports, making it a critical external market for countries such as Poland and Romania.

The World Bank did not detail the domestic factors behind Romania’s downgraded forecast, but the revision comes amid growing concerns over fiscal imbalances, sluggish investment, and political uncertainty. Romania continues to face pressure to reduce its wide budget deficit while maintaining macroeconomic stability.

The latest downgrade follows similar moves by other international institutions that have revised down their outlooks for Romania due to persistent structural vulnerabilities and weaker-than-expected economic performance in early 2025.

ING Bank Romania revises 2025 growth forecast

Following the publication of the detailed Q1 GDP figures (+0.3% y/y), ING Bank Romania revised on June 6 its 2025 GDP growth forecast for Romania to 0.8% from 1.2%, which reflects weak momentum and growing downside risks. The bank maintains its 2026 estimate at 2.2%.

The publication of Romania's detailed GDP data for the first quarter of 2025 confirms a fragile growth structure, the bank’s research report reads. 

The economy was flat on a quarterly basis and expanded by only 0.3% compared to the first quarter of 2024. Private consumption remained the main growth engine alongside investments, but net exports have offset nearly all those gains.

On the supply side, industry was a major drag, while construction and net taxes offered some support. Services and agriculture were broadly neutral.

Looking ahead, the bank sees the outlook clouded by the upcoming fiscal consolidation package. 

New tax measures are likely to weigh on consumption and private investments. 

At the same time, the liberalisation of electricity prices from July 2025 could trigger a sharp rise in energy costs. Early signals point to a solid double-digit price increase in electricity prices, which could push inflation towards the 6.0% area in the second half of 2025.