“Uzbekistan has attracted $39bn of FDI in the last eight years, up ten-fold,” Uzbekistan’s President Shavkat Mirziyoyev  told the delegates to the fourth Tashkent International Investment Forum (TIIF) on June 10 as a banner ran on the screen behind him, "Invest into Uzbekistan. Invest into people."

Since taking over from his predecessor and Uzbekistan's only president since independence, Islam Karimov, in 2016, Mirziyoyev has ushered in sweeping economic reforms and wide-ranging liberalisations that are now starting to pay dividends of several years of 6%-plus growth, and now also appear to have brought the country to the point achieving critical mass regarding the attraction of the interest of international investors.

There are two themes that run through the Mirziyoyev administration: add value and improve the lives of the people. All his reforms and liberalisations are focused on these two goals.

At the same time, Uzbekistan and Central Asia in general are back on the geopolitical map, lying at the nexus of Russia, China and the Middle East, a significance it has not seen for more than 100 years and the days of the Great Game. The country is back on the international investors’ map but it’s still early days. After years of rivalry, Mirziyoyev has ushered in a new era regional cooperation and the five ‘Stan presidents have begun to travel as a pack in the so-called C5 format. Moreover, the upside of the global tensions between East and West is that the increased attention on the region has also brought investment and improved relations with the great powers as everyone woos the Central Asian leaders in the geopolitical game of chess.

This international relevance was on display during Mirziyoyev’s plenary session panel, where all the other 'Stans had sent prime ministers or heads of government. But in addition, the prime ministers of Bulgaria, Rosen Zhelyazkov, and Slovakia, Robert Fico, from the EU were on the panel and the president of Slovenia was in Tashkent a day earlier. Alexi Novak, deputy Prime Minister of Russia representing the Kremlin, was a keynote speaker, who talked at length about economic cooperation in the Eurasian Economic Union (EEU). From finance came Odile Renaud-Basso, president of the EBRD, representing Western development banks. The European Investment Bank (EIB), an investment vehicle of the EU, has just opened an office in Tashkent. Dimla Rousseff, the head of the BRICS bank, the New Development Bank, was representing the Global South countries and highlighted the neutral stance Uzbekistan is striving to adopt in the East-West geopolitical clash.

“Sanctions and world trade tariffs means there is a growing need for access [to] national resources. The CIS is promoting a crystal clear relation[ship] in Central Asia and the larger Eurasian space,” said Novak.

Russia remains a key economic partner for Uzbekistan and recently signed off on a new gas supply deal that will bring several years of energy crisis to an end, but at the same time Tashkent is keeping the Kremlin at arm’s length and has turned down an offer to set up a gas hub with Russia and will not offer its best state-owned banks to the Russian banking giants in the mooted privatisation of the sector – which would otherwise be willing buyers and have massive resources.

Notably, when Novak took to the lectern to speak, the ambassadors to Uzbekistan from the UK, US, EU and Ukraine walked out of the session, accompanied by half a dozen colleagues, but the vast majority of the audience stayed in their seats. CNN’s Richard Quest also pulled out as monitor of the session at the last moment after being informed of Novak’s inclusion on the panel. But once Novak had finished speaking the ambassadors quietly returned and retook their seats. 

Mirziyoyev went out of his way to highlight Uzbekistan neutrality in his political comments. Tashkent has adopted a multi-vector foreign policy where it attempts to remain friends with all the major powers, but at the same time, tries to avoid being dragged into the conflict. Moreover, Mirziyoyev repeated Uzbekistan’s goal of joining WTO as soon as next year.

“The threats from geopolitical tensions are intensifying quickly and there is a renewed arms race worldwide. There has been $2.5 trillion in military spending and that is up two and half times, while global growth has fallen over the last three years,” said Mirziyoyev. “International legal norms need to be strengthened while diplomacy is weakening… We must rebuild trust, peace and human dignity so they become more important.”

“The Ukraine conflict can be resolved exclusively by diplomatic means. We welcome the Istanbul process, and [efforts to end] the long-standing tragedy of Gaza and stop the destruction of so many lives before our eyes. Palestine’s right to its own independent state in undeniable.”

Mirziyoyev went to also highlight the instability in Afghanistan, the main security threat to Central Asia and a central plank of the Mirziyoyev administration’s foreign policy – an issue he brought up at his first every speech to the UN General Assembly (UNGA) in September 2017. He called once again on the international community to dedicate more efforts to improving the situation in Afghanistan and promoting dialog with the “de facto” government of the country, the Taliban, to build security for Afghanistan and the surrounding countries.

“The investment will [not only] drive growth but also guarantee peace, social prosperity and stability,” the president added.

Investment

But the main thrust of Mirziyoyev speech was the continuing efforts to develop the local environment as part of Uzbekistan’s “third renaissance”. The economy has doubled in size in the last eight years and the goal is to reach a nominal GDP of $200bn by 2030, under the government’s current development. Increasingly this will be done with the help from the growing volume of foreign direct investment (FDI) that has increased ten-fold since he took over.

Uzbekistan is also moving up the various international indices such as Economic Freedom index (35 places in a year) and S&PG economics stability, the president said.

Mirziyoyev highlighted the rapid progress made in expanding Uzbekistan’s renewable power resources and its green growth model. After some initial hesitation, the government has thrown itself into developing green power and lifted the goal from 25% of the total generation mix to 54% by 2030. The sector has already attracted $6bn in foreign investment into the sector, with $4bn invested into modernising the grid.

The investment into green energy is also an important part of the government’s response to the growing ecological problems. Water security in Central Asia is under threat from rising global temperatures.

The tech sector is another that is doing well, with exports topping $1bn in 2024 for the first time, and it is expected to quintuple by 2030, according to the national plan. The government is also investing in infrastructure and will put money into data and cloud computing to support the continued growth of the IT sector.

Mining is well developed, but in a new direction TMK has been set up to focus on developing critical mineral deposits. Only a third of the country has been fully surveyed but according to preliminary estimates, Uzbekistan is home to some $3 trillion worth of mineral resources.

Privatisation is high on the government agenda but so far progress has been slow. However, Mirziyoyev says that the state-owned enterprises (SOE) have been converted into joint stock companies and placed under the control of the National Investment Fund before being listed on the stock exchanges.