International Ice Hockey Federation (IIHF) has stripped Belarus of the right to hold the World Championship this year
Russian opposition activist Alexei Navalny arrested on arrival as he returns home
LONG READ: The oligarch problem
COVID-19 and Trump’s indifference helped human rights abusers in 2020
Russian opposition activist Navalny calls for supporters to take to the streets this weekend
One of Russia’s biggest wood product companies, Segezha could be Sistema’s next IPO
New Ukrainian VC firm QPDigital aims to invest up to $100 million in digital startups
EBRD investments reach record €11bn in pandemic-struck 2020
OUTLOOK 2021 Lithuania
EBRD says loan to Estonia’s controversial Porto Franco project was never disbursed
Estonian premier quits after Tallinn development scandal
Czech Pirates and Mayors approve final coalition agreement for 2021 elections
OUTLOOK 2021 Czechia
BRICKS & MORTAR: Rosier future beckons for CEE retailers after year of change and disruption
OUTLOOK 2021 Hungary
Hungarian government remains silent after Capitol riots
World Bank expects modest recovery for Europe and Central Asia in 2021
OUTLOOK 2021 Slovakia
FDI inflows to CEE down 58% in 1H20 but rebound expected
Slovakia to invest €1.2bn in digitisation
Corona-induced slump in global clothing sector dragged down Albania’s 2020 exports
BALKAN BLOG: The controversial recipe for building up Albania
Heavy flooding causes chaos in parts of Southeast Europe
Vodafone Albania plans €100mn infrastructure investments after AbCom merger
Turnover rose on Bosnia's two stock exchanges in 2020 while prices fell
Storming parliaments: New Europe's greatest hits
Kyiv accuses Bosnian President Dodik of lying about icon gifted to Russian foreign minister
Bulgaria’s government considers gradual easing of COVID-related restrictions
Sofia-based LAUNCHub Ventures holds first close of new fund on €44mn
ING THINK: Growth in the Balkans: from zero to hero again?
Labour demand down 28% y/y in Croatia in 2020
Zagreb Stock Exchange's Crobex10 index at highest level since March 5
OUTLOOK 2021 Kosovo
Arrera Automobili aims to launch Albania’s first supercar
OUTLOOK 2021 Moldova
World Bank revises projection for Moldova’s 2020 GDP decline to 7.2%
Moldova’s PM resigns to prepare the ground for early elections
Montenegrins say state administration is most corrupt institution
75% of Montenegrins want EU membership
Montenegro’s new ruling coalition carves up top state jobs
North Macedonia's manufacturing confidence indicator down by 8.5 pp y/y in December
OUTLOOK 2021 North Macedonia
Transparency International warns of high corruption risk in CEE defence sectors
OUTLOOK 2021 Romania
Romania’s central bank cuts monetary policy rate by 25bp to 1.25%
Romanian construction companies' activity slows in November after intense 2020
OUTLOOK 2021 Serbia
Slovenia’s opposition files no-confidence motion against Jansa cabinet
Slovenia’s government to release funds to news agency STA after EU pressure
UK Moneyhub picks Slovenia for post-Brexit European base
Slovenia’s dire COVID-19 situation in 4Q20 caused second economic dip
Turkcell denies any affiliation with $1.6bn loan in default extended by Ziraat Bank to Virgin Islands company
BEYOND THE BOSPORUS: Let’s tentatively pencil in a date for Turkey’s hot money outflow
Armenia ‘to extend life of its 1970s Metsamor nuclear power plant after 2026’
OUTLOOK 2021 Armenia
COMMENT: Record high debt levels will slow post-coronavirus recovery, threaten some countries' financial stability, says IIF
Armenia’s PM cautions conflict with Azerbaijan “still not settled” after trilateral meeting with Putin
OUTLOOK 2021 Georgia
Georgia’s political kingpin Bidzina Ivanishvili quits politics
Modern-day “Robin Hood” inspires Georgians drowning in debt
Durov rejects Western funds’ offer to buy 5%-10% of Telegram with $30bn valuation
Iran’s navy conducts missile drill while analyst argues Trump even capable of nuclear strike in final days
TEHRAN BLOG: Who’s more credible? Johnson backing Trump’s Nobel chances or Iran applauding arrest warrant for US president?
Central Asia vaccination plans underwhelm, but governments look unruffled
Fears of authoritarianism as Kyrgyz populist wins landslide and backing for ‘Khanstitution’
OUTLOOK 2021 Kyrgyzstan
Mongolia's winter dzud set to be one of most extreme on record says Red Cross
Mongolian coal exports to China paralysed as Beijing demands virus testing of truck drivers
Mongolia fears economic damage as country faces up to its first local transmissions of coronavirus
Mongolia in lockdown after suffering first local coronavirus transmissions
OUTLOOK 2021 Tajikistan
China business briefing: Not happy with Kyrgyzstan
OUTLOOK 2021 Turkmenistan
Turkmenistan: How the Grinch stole New Year
Turkmenistan: The dammed united
COMMENT: Uzbekistan is being transformed, but where are the democratic reforms?
OUTLOOK 2021 Uzbekistan
Download the pdf version
More...
Czechs will go to the polls on January 12-13 to directly elect their president, in a contest that could transform the country’s battered international image.
The election is essentially a vote on whether to re-elect the populist, pro-Russian and Islamophobic President Milos Zeman, who is standing for a second and final term, or one of his centrist and rightwing challengers, some of whom hark back fondly to the country’s great first post-1989 president, dissident playwright Vaclav Havel.
The election has also become entwined with the country’s ongoing political stalemate, with Zeman strongly backing populist billionaire Andrej Babis’ attempts to form a government after winning October’s general election. Babis repaid the favour on January 11 by making the widely expected announcement that he would support Zeman in the election, adding his backing to that of the leaders of the hardline Communist and the far right Freedom and Direct Democracy parties.
“I see him as a strong personality which is polarising society, but mainly as someone who does not steal, who has results, who keeps his word... and unlike other politicians, he does not live from politics, he lives for politics,” Babis told a news conference. “He is a man who fights for our national interests, he is not afraid to clearly state his opinion on Brussels, (migration) quotas, he fights for the interests of our entrepreneurs.”
Many of Zeman’s eight challengers have taken a much more guarded view on Babis because of the fraud charges that hang over the agro-chemicals tycoon and have prevented him winning the backing of any mainstream parties.
Zeman – a former Social Democrat prime minister who now shares platforms with neo-fascists– faces a strong challenge from Jiri Drahos, a former president of the Czech Academy of Sciences who has become the clear second-placed candidate, ahead of Michal Horacek, a businessman and music producer.
Opinion polls indicate that Zeman will easily win the first round this weekend but will be beaten by Drahos in the run-off on January 26-27 (the only one of the candidates who would beat the incumbent president). The final poll published by Czech Television on January 8 reported that in the first round Zeman would receive 42.5% against Drahos’ 27.5%, but in the run-off Zeman’s vote would only rise to 44%, while Drahos would take 48.5%.
Zeman, 73, has refused to take part in television debates or even to conduct a vigorous campaign, partly because of serious health problems, but also as part of a strategy to differentiate himself from the crowd of little-known and rather colourless rival candidates. He has also been outspent by Drahos and Horacek, according to campaign expense submissions.
But he has still managed to dominate the election because of his key role in the current political crisis. This plays to his strengths as one of the country’s most important and brilliant politicians of the past quarter of a century. Among his rivals only former premier Mirek Topolanek has any significant political experience, but he is better known for the ignominios collapse of his government during the Czech EU presidency, for being photographed naked at former Italian premier Silvio Berlusconi's villa, and the jailing of his close aide for bribery.
Permanent campaign
Zeman has been preparing for this campaign ever since he was elected with 55% of the vote in 2013, in a bitter run-off against the centre-right former foreign minister Karel Schwartzenberg. Over the past five years he has conducted a permanent low-key campaign, constantly touring around towns in the regions, rubbing shoulders with his older, poorer and less well-educated voters, and heaping scorn on the Prague-based liberal elite.
Many of his voters feel they have missed out on the huge improvement in living standards since the collapse of Communism and some remain nostalgic for the security and camaraderie of that era.
In a classic populist pitch, Zeman has tried to widen this national divide, which the hard drinking, smoking and swearing political bruiser has memorably described as one between the Ceska hospoda (Czech pub) and the Prazska kavarna (Prague café).
The main issue he has used to do this is migration. He blames Islamic culture directly for terrorism and crime and says that the refugee wave Europe has faced is an “organised invasion” and a Muslim Brotherhood plot. He claims integrating Muslim migrants is “practically impossible”.
So successful has he been that opinion polls show Czechs now rank refugees and terrorism (seen as linked) as the most important challenges facing the country, even though Czechia has refused to accept refugees under the EU relocation scheme and the nation has never suffered a terrorist attack.
However, Zeman's intemperate language against Islam has brought him international notoriety, as has his backing for Russian President Vladimir Putin. He sees Putin (and likewise US President Donald Trump) as a strong leader prepared to take a stand against Islamist terrorism. Like many of his Czech supporters, he also has lingering sympathies for Russia as a fellow Slav nation, even if this was tarnished by the 1968 Russian invasion that destroyed Czechslovakia’s experiment of “Socialism with a human face”.
Zeman has regularly visited Russia and attended Russian-sponsored events despite Western sanctions. He has pleased his hosts by criticising sanctions and downplaying Russian incursions into Ukraine and its seizure of Crimea. There have also long been rumours that his election publicity campaigns are financed with Russian money – through his close aide Martin Nejedly, a former head of LukOil’s Czech subsidiary – though no convincing proof has yet emerged.
If Zeman wins, he is likely to double down on his crusade against Islam and his backing for Putin, so long as his health holds out. He may even try to play a bigger foreign policy role, by perhaps demanding that Babis lets him choose the new foreign minister as a condition for allowing him to stay in power as a minority government without a mandate from parliament. Zeman is also likely to push the case for Russia’s Rosatom to build new nuclear reactors at Dukovany, a huge planned investment project.
By contrast if Drahos, 68, were to defeat Zeman, this could help transform the Czech international image, though the former chemist is likely to take a very low profile, rather than strike out in a new direction. Foreign policy would anyway continue to be directed by the government, which under Babis would remain hostile to migrants and ambivalent about sanctions on Russia.
Drahos would also not make it as easy as Zeman has for Babis to rule without a majority in parliament. But as a political neophyte he is unlikely to play such an important role in creating the government either, if the political scene is still deadlocked by the time the new president takes office in March.
Drahos has given mixed signals about Babis, sometimes describing him as a traditional politician, at other times worrying about the EU subsidy fraud charges that still hang over him.
In fact he has failed to take a strong stance on anything, in the hope that just being the anti-Zeman will be enough. This may well be enough for the Prazska kavarna, but it is unlikely to play so well in the village pubs.
Register here to continue reading this article and 5 more for free or purchase 12 months full website access including the bne Magazine for just $250/year.
Register to read the bne monthly magazine for free:
Already registered
Password could contain only a-z0-9\+*?[^]$(){}=!<>|:-_ characters and have 8-20 symbols length.
Please complete your registration by confirming your email address.
A confirmation email has been sent to the email address you provided.
Forgotten password?
Email field can't be empty.
No user with this email address.
Access recovery request has expired, or you are using the wrong recovery token. Please, try again.
Access recover request has expired. Please, try again.
To continue viewing our content you need to complete the registration process.
Please look for an email that was sent to with the subject line "Confirmation bne IntelliNews access". This email will have instructions on how to complete registration process. Please check in your "Junk" folder in case this communication was misdirected in your email system.
If you have any questions please contact us at sales@intellinews.com
Sorry, but you have used all your free articles fro this month for bne IntelliNews. Subscribe to continue reading for only $119 per year.
Your subscription includes:
For the meantime we are also offering a free subscription to bne's digital weekly newspaper to subscribers to the online package.
Click here for more subscription options, including to the print version of our flagship monthly magazine:
More subscription options
Take a trial to our premium daily news service aimed at professional investors that covers the 30 countries of emerging Europe:
Get IntelliNews PRO
For any other enquiries about our products or corporate discounts please contact us at sales@intellinews.com
If you no longer wish to receive our emails, unsubscribe here.
Magazine annual electronic subscription
Magazine annual print subscription
Website & Archive annual subscription
Combined package: web access & magazine print annual subscription