Cocoa prices have surged to unprecedented levels as climate change wreaks havoc on West African crops, creating the world's largest supply deficit in more than 60 years and threatening chocolate availability worldwide.

The cost of cocoa shot up by 136% between July 2022 and February 2024, with the price per tonne crossing $10,000 for the first time ever on March 26, according to the UN Conference on Trade and Development. The price of cocoa remains above $8,000 US per tonne despite recent price drops causing having across the industry.

The International Cocoa Organization projects a global supply deficit of 374,000 tonnes for the 2023-24 season compared to 74,000 tonnes last season, marking the most severe shortage in over six decades.

West Africa, which produces 70% of the world's cocoa, has been devastated by extreme weather patterns driven by climate change. Climate change has added about 40 days per year with maximum temperatures above 90°F in cacao-growing regions of Côte d'Ivoire and Ghana, which together account for over half of global cocoa production.

Excessive rainfall in Ghana and Côte d'Ivoire during the fourth quarter of 2023 led to a flare-up of swollen shoot virus and black pod disease, causing cocoa pods to rot and harden. The two countries produced 58% of the world's cocoa between 2022 and 2023.

The International Cocoa Organization projects that global cocoa supply will drop by 13% to 4.38bn tonnes in 2024, with cocoa stocks potentially hitting their lowest levels in 45 years.

Temperature increases are particularly damaging to cacao cultivation. Research conducted across Brazil, Ghana and Indonesia found that sites where temperatures were up to 7°C warmer had 20-31% lower cocoa yields, according to a University of Oxford study.

Cacao thrives in warm temperatures up to 90°F, but temperatures above this range can reduce the quality and quantity of harvests. Climate change is also disrupting rainfall patterns crucial for cacao growth, which requires annual rainfall between 1,500-2,000mm with dry spells lasting no longer than three months.

The crisis affects millions of smallholder farmers across the tropics. Cocoa is a vital cash crop for four to six million small-holder farmers and supports a global chocolate industry valued at over $100bn annually.

J.P. Morgan Research expects chocolate market inflation to accelerate potentially to the low-teens in 2025, describing it as "largely unprecedented in recent history".

UK chocolate prices have risen 17% year-on-year as of March 2025, whilst the average price per kilogram of cocoa beans imported into Britain has increased 32% over three years.

The shortage is forcing chocolate manufacturers to pass costs to consumers through price increases, shrinking bar sizes, or reformulating products to use less cocoa with reports of worsening quality in several major brands of late due to the changing climate conditions.