Uzbek citizens’ inflation expectations rise for first time since February

By Muzaffar Ismailov in Tashkent September 11, 2023

After a six-month decline, the inflation expectations of Uzbek citizens went back on the rise again in July, according to central bank data.

Average inflation forecast by respondents among the population was 14.2%, up by 1.2 pp month on month. The median was 11.6%, also more than a percentage point above the finding of the previous survey.

At the same time, the indicators remain noticeably lower than the figures recorded last year and at the beginning of this year. As of January, the average inflation expectation stood at 18.9%, while the median exceeded 15%.

Of the survey participants, 30% assumed that the rate of price growth would remain in the 9-12% corridor. The number of respondents expecting inflation to fall noticeably decreased, while the number of those predicting further price acceleration increased.

Dynamic exchange rate depreciation of the Uzbek som generally feeds into higher inflation forecasts. In July, 70% of respondents noted the weakening som.

The average level of the inflation expectation among businesses in July rose to 14.4% (+0.9 pp). The median level was noticeably lower at 11.8%.

Headline inflation in Uzbekistan in August was 9% while m/m inflation was 0.5%. 

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