After a six-month decline, the inflation expectations of Uzbek citizens went back on the rise again in July, according to central bank data.
Average inflation forecast by respondents among the population was 14.2%, up by 1.2 pp month on month. The median was 11.6%, also more than a percentage point above the finding of the previous survey.
At the same time, the indicators remain noticeably lower than the figures recorded last year and at the beginning of this year. As of January, the average inflation expectation stood at 18.9%, while the median exceeded 15%.
Of the survey participants, 30% assumed that the rate of price growth would remain in the 9-12% corridor. The number of respondents expecting inflation to fall noticeably decreased, while the number of those predicting further price acceleration increased.
Dynamic exchange rate depreciation of the Uzbek som generally feeds into higher inflation forecasts. In July, 70% of respondents noted the weakening som.
The average level of the inflation expectation among businesses in July rose to 14.4% (+0.9 pp). The median level was noticeably lower at 11.8%.
Headline inflation in Uzbekistan in August was 9% while m/m inflation was 0.5%.
Related Articles
Unusually intense heatwave hit Central Asia in March, may impact crop yields
Central Asia experienced an unusually intense heatwave in March that could have an impact on agricultural crop yields, according to an April 4 ... more
Russia’s expulsions of migrants reportedly nearly double in 2024 to around 80,000
Russia in 2024 expelled more than 80,000 migrants for immigration rule violations, compared to 44,200 in 2023 and 26,600 in 2022, TASS reported on January 8. The Russian state news agency cited a ... more
Kazakhstan’s transit of Russian oil to Uzbekistan and China amounts to 10.2mn tonnes in 2024
Russia’s transit of oil through Kazakhstan’s pipeline system, operated by main pipeline operator KazTransOil, to China and Uzbekistan totalled 10.21mn tonnes in 2024, ... more