Uzbek central bank sticks with 14% key rate, sees inflation at 9.5% by year-end

By Muzaffar Ismailov in Tashkent September 14, 2023

Uzbekistan’s central bank on September 13 kept its key rate unchanged at 14%, pointing to “rising prices for certain groups of goods”.

A continuation of a moderately tight monetary policy would eliminate the influence of monetary factors on prices, the regulator said. The central bank said it planned to achieve a reduction in pro-inflationary drivers and pressure from aggregate demand, which follows income hikes.

Headline inflation in August stood at 9%. Core inflation showed a tendency for a slow but steady decline. It amounted to 10.7%.

At the same time, the regulator noted a reversal of inflation expectations among the public. The depreciation of the Uzbekistani som, together with fuel and energy price increases, changed sentiment towards an expectation of higher inflation.

The central bank itself slightly adjusted its forecast range for end-year inflation upwards to a band of 8.5% to 9.5%.

It also noted risks in the rising debt burden carried by the population due to lending growth.

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