Ukraine's ongoing challenges and the impact of Russia’s invasion are evident in the grim statistics shared by Tymofiy Mylovanov, an economist, presidential advisor and dean of Kyiv School of Economics (KSE).

“Macroeconomics shows that Ukraine got it worse than the Great Depression. Yet the economy has not collapsed and people are not on the streets,” Mylovanov said in a thread on Twitter.

In 2022, over 5mn people were internally displaced, with more than 8mn fleeing the country. This represents approximately 30% of the population, comparable to the entire populations of states such as New York, California, Florida and Texas losing their homes and being forced to relocate.

“18% of Ukraine's area and 12% of pre-war GDP remain under occupation during the full-scale invasion by Russia in 2022-2023,” said Mylovanov. “To comprehend this share, imagine that [the] Russians invaded the EU and occupied France and Greece completely.”

The economic consequences have been severe. Unemployment rose from 10% in 2021 to a staggering 25-26% in 2022. One in four individuals capable of and willing to work found themselves without jobs. The real GDP has plummeted by 29.1%, and consumer inflation soared by 26.6% in the same year. The devaluation of the hryvnia exchange rate by 25% further exacerbated the economic challenges faced by the country. And industrial production in Ukraine fell by 36.9% in 2022.

The impact on trade was also significant. Exports of goods decreased by 35%, while exports of services fell by 28.3% in 2022. These indicators mirror those of the Great Depression, but what sets Ukraine apart is the speed at which such a severe economic decline occurred. In the United States, it took from 1929 to 1933 for the GDP to fall by 29%, whereas Ukraine experienced this decline within a single year.

The trade balance reflected the economic downturn, with net exports contributing negatively to the GDP change by almost 10%. The trade balance itself reached a negative value of $25.9bn in 2022, compared to -$2.7bn in 2021. Imports of goods also declined by 20.3%. Industrial production suffered greatly, experiencing a decrease of 36.9% in 2022.

“These indicators are on par with the Great Depression ones, but there is a difference. In the US, for GDP to fall 29%, it took from 1929 to 1933. In Ukraine it happened in a year,” Mylovanov said.

Despite these challenges, Ukraine managed to avoid collapse and finance its expenditures, including defence and social needs. Adaptability and resilience among the people and businesses played a crucial role, says Mylovanov.

Additionally, international aid played a significant part, with Ukraine receiving $48.6bn since February 24, 2022. However, this assistance came at a cost, and the debt burden reached 75.4% of GDP or $101.5bn by the end of 2022.

Looking forward, the National Bank of Ukraine forecasts a 2.0% economic growth for 2023. However, the reduction of security risks will be essential for sustained economic growth in the years 2024-2025. International support will continue to be necessary, with estimates suggesting that Ukraine may require over $42bn in assistance in 2023 alone.

“Is this a lot?” asks Mylovanov. “Sounds like! But it is 30% of the wealth of Jeff Bezos, for example or less than 0.1% of the GDP of the OECD countries.”