Turkey’s consumer price index (CPI) inflation officially stood at 37.86% y/y in April versus 38.10% in March and 44% y/y at end-2024, the Turkish Statistical Institute (TUIK, or TurkStat) said on May 5.

It is not advisable to plan, price or draw inferences based on TUIK data. There is widespread concern about the reliability of Turkey’s official data series.

At 38%, Turkey remains in fifth place in the world inflation league.

The Istanbul-based ENAG inflation research group of economists, meanwhile, calculated a Turkish inflation figure of 80% for April, following its 75% assessment for March.

Monthly up in market fluctuation

TUIK also posted a monthly official inflation figure of 3.00% for April, an acceleration on the 2.46% registered for March.

However, the escalation in the monthly figure has not caused a deterioration in the headline annual figure. That's despite the market stress seen in Turkey since March 19, when Istanbul mayor and chief political opponent to President Recep Tayyip Erdogan, Ekrem Imamoglu, was detained.

In the coming months, TUIK is set to deliver further outcomes in the 1-2%s for the official monthly headline indicator.

No consensus

On June 19, the monetary policy committee (MPC) of Turkey’s central bank will hold its next rate-setting meeting.

No consensus on its expected move is available. Everything depends on the path of the USD/TRY, which remains in the 38s.

At the last rate-setting meeting held on April 17, the MPC hiked its main policy rate (one-week repo rate) by 350bp to 46%.

It also hiked its overnight lending rate by 300bp to 49% and its overnight borrowing rate by 350bp to 44.5%.

May 22 inflation report

On May 22, the next inflation report will be released. On June 3, TUIK will release its May inflation data.

On February 7, Turkey’s central bank hiked its end-2025 official inflation "target" to 24% y/y in an inflation report. The upper boundary of the forecast range was moved up to 29% y/y.

The authority expects seasonally-adjusted monthly inflation figures to edge up a little in 1Q25 (due to wage hikes and new year price/fee updates) in comparison to the 2%s in 4Q24.

The expectation is, meanwhile, that the figures will fall below the 1.5%-level starting from 3Q25 and end the year in and around the 1.3%s (closer to the 1%-level).