Turkey’s official gross domestic product (GDP) expanded by 2.3% y/y in the second quarter of 2026, the Turkish Statistical Institute (TUIK, or TurkStat), said on August 30.

It is not advisable to plan, price or draw inferences based on TUIK data. There is widespread concern about the reliability of Turkey’s official data series.

The authority also revised the 1Q26 number to 2.6% y/y from the previously provided 2.5% y/y. The 4Q25 figure remained unchanged at 3.4% while the 3Q25 data was revised up to 3.8% from 3.7%. The upward revising of initially provided economic growth figures for previous quarters is a known and frequent tendency of TUIK.

The 2025 GDP growth figure was revised up to 3.7% from 3.6%.

On a seasonally and calendar adjusted basis, TUIK’s GDP series showed growth of 1.1% in 2Q. The 1Q figure was revised up to 0.3% q/q from 0.1% q/q. The 4Q25 figure was kept at 0.4% q/q.

Why always revised up?

By releasing a lower figure for initial consumption, prior to revising it up in a later release, TUIK achieves media reporting of the more modest outcome that is widely digested and, in the final analysis, secures the presentation of full-year growth numbers that are in better shape.

The authority seeks to find a middle path between the demands of the finance industry, which demands recession as proof of a tight monetary policy, and the appetite of the country’s president, Recep Tayyip Erdogan, who demands strong indicators to feed the electorate. 

Prior to the appointment of the current orthodox management team for the economy in June 2023, Turkey used to release GDP growth figures in the range of 5-10%. The new management have brought the full-year GDP growth releases down into the 3%s.

Growth target for 2026

In September, Turkey’s government provided an official GDP growth target of 3.8% y/y for 2026 in its latest medium-term economic programme (OVP).

On November 30, TUIK will release its 3Q26 data.