Not to put watermelons under the arms of the Iranian leadership (getting a big head, to borrow a Persian-language phrase), but Canadian Prime Minister Mark Carney's recent boomerang-like tough rhetoric back at the American leadership's hardline demands shows an entirely new side to Canada's relationship with the United States.

Under Carney's premiership, Canada has moved away from the happy-go-lucky air of Justin Trudeau toward a more serious, businesslike approach. We need not mention that Carney has run both the Bank of England and the Bank of Canada, along with holding a slew of other top roles, before entering power in Ottawa.

But that quick change between the Trudeau and Carney regimes in Canada also belies a significant shift in strategy in dealing with the elephant down below. Ever the career professional, when meeting US President Donald Trump in person for the first time, the Canadian leader managed to bat off his quite unreasonable demands.

"As you know from real estate, there are some places that are never for sale. We're sitting in one right now — Buckingham Palace, you visited, as well — and having met with the owners of Canada over the course of the campaign these last several months, it's not for sale. Won't be for sale ever."

He also said afterwards that he'd told Trump the 51st-state comments were "not useful", and described the talks as "wide-ranging" and "constructive".

Still, the forthright nature of Carney's comments appears not to have placated the Trump administration's desire to call the shots with Ottawa, and has hardened the Liberal government's stance on the situation between the two neighbours.

Trump, with his ever-shortening attention span, appeared to have forgotten about the subject of Canada for several months until the Iranians managed to bat off American aggression by blocking the Strait of Hormuz. By strangling the international oil, gas and fertiliser markets, the Iranians got the world's attention — and, some would say, admiration in certain quarters, probably not Ottawa's. Nonetheless, they have moved the dial on what the US is able to do and the limits of American power and hubris.

Countries and populations across the world are now beginning to emulate certain aspects of the Iranian position. Canada, potentially the latest punching bag, has also learned a lesson from the Islamabad negotiations between Tehran and Washington, which appear to have gone nowhere fast. They are in fact directly emulating that set of failed discussions by not playing ball. 

What those negotiations showed was the US — with its all-star duo of Jared Kushner (the president's son-in-law) and Steve Witkoff (the property developer), both of whom appear to be pulling strings and running rings around the Oval Office — is not using the breadth of experience of diplomats and subject-matter experts, but gut feelings and vibes in negotiations. Well, you can imagine how well those negotiations go when you are dealing with people with singular agendas and limited context on situations.

We could say the same is true for the collapsed trade negotiations in Canada: requests like hugely damaging auto tariffs, and even more bizarre cultural demands such as French being removed from packaging because Americans can't read French, show the lengths to which the US will go to in its singular-minded mission in recent discussions.

The outcome is then entirely predictable and part of a long-term pattern now repeating itself with actual opponents — bar Venezuela, where the US appears to be negotiating with itself over oil imports from Caracas. Canada will keep rejecting hugely damaging demands because it's not in its interests to collapse its own economy, much like the other countries before them.

We have not yet had the so-called "Hormuz moment" for Canada, one in which Canada does something drastic to the Americans. But if social media is anything to go by, the vitriol directed at the Americans is spilling over.

Whether it is an oil pipeline traversing its territory being cut off from the Americans, or border closures, or even the Canadians blocking access for American trawlers going through the Great Lakes area, all of these are looking more appealing to many across Canada as negotiations between the neighbours turn "nasty", to use Carney's own words. Just take a look at Canadian Twitter accounts, which were previously reasonable, now visibly cursing the Americans; this is an entirely new situation.

At the August 22 press conference in Ottawa, Carney said: "We were not prepared to compromise Canada's sovereignty or to undermine key industries", adding: "You are at war when you get attacked. We got attacked."

"Canada will match those tariffs dollar for dollar" — concentrated on steel, dairy, appliances, agricultural equipment, pulp and paper, and electronics, from September 8. On critical minerals, he said Canada would never give the US "exclusive access".

So, if the course has been set, where do both countries go from here? A US blockade of Canadian entry points? Is the US Navy going to block the port of Saint John in New Brunswick and force players like DP World out? Who knows where this is all going.

The rest of the world is also noticing, including the Iranians. The country’s foreign ministry spokesperson, Esmail Baghaei, noticed the mess between Ottawa and Washington and decided to pile in on August 16, saying: "Washington calls Canada its 51st state; Washington imposes tariffs on Canadian goods; Washington insults Canada and threatens to punish it over wildfire smoke; Ottawa's response: Understood, Sir! Meanwhile, Ottawa participates in the US-led unlawful war of choice against Iran, to appease Washington! What's the reward? THIS IS NOT HOCKEY NIGHT IN CANADA; IT IS WASHINGTON'S FARM TEAM."

That "farm team" is a hockey reference indicating that Canada was a minor-league team being used as a subordinate by the US. Remember, relations between Tehran and Ottawa are still at an all-time low, with Canada, on several occasions, doing the US's bidding and closing its embassy in the Iranian capital, so there is no love lost between the two.

To understand where this is all going, then, is to assume we have a magic ball into the minds of the respective governments. Carney will not be calling Iran’s President Pezeshkian for tips on how to deal with the White House anytime soon, but the Ottawa administration should look at how those discussions have effectively failed and become stagnant, and attempt to avoid the same fate.