Bosnia & Herzegovina is heading towards a general election on October 4 without a functioning majority at state level and with its bid to join the European Union stalled by political deadlock, as pointed out in a report by the OSCE Office for Democratic Institutions and Human Rights (ODIHR).

The election takes place at a time when the constitutional order is being openly challenged by the leadership of the Serb-run Republika Srpska, deepening an institutional crisis that has become the country's most serious since the 1995 Dayton peace agreement ended the war.

The OSCE/ODIHR opened an election observation mission in Sarajevo on August 20 at the invitation of Bosnian authorities. The mission is led by Tana de Zulueta and includes a 13-member core team, with 26 long-term observers due to deploy from August 28 and 300 short-term observers expected to arrive shortly before polling day.

"Our observation mission will assess the electoral process in Bosnia and Herzegovina against OSCE commitments and other international obligations and standards for democratic elections," de Zulueta said.

Observers will examine campaign finance, election administration, the use of new voting technology, media coverage and mechanisms for resolving electoral disputes. They will also assess measures to counter disinformation and foreign interference.

The mission said the election was taking place in a "highly polarised environment marked by increasing challenges to the constitutional order".

Coalition collapse

The political crisis has left Bosnia without a stable state-level governing majority since January 2025.

The coalition formed after the 2022 election brought together the Trojka alliance of the Social Democratic Party (SDP), People and Justice and Our Party with the Croat Democratic Union (HDZ BiH) and Milorad Dodik's Alliance of Independent Social Democrats (SNSD).

The coalition broke apart in January last year and attempts to form a replacement government have failed, leaving the Council of Ministers and state parliament without a stable majority.

The political paralysis has coincided with a confrontation between institutions in Sarajevo and authorities in Republika Srpska, one of Bosnia's two autonomous entities, the report noted.

Dodik, the long-time leader of Republika Srpska, was convicted by the state court in February 2025 of defying decisions by the international High Representative, the official overseeing implementation of the Dayton peace agreement. He was sentenced to one year in prison, later convertible to a fine, and barred from public office for six years.

The Central Election Commission subsequently terminated his mandate as president of Republika Srpska.

A snap presidential election was held in November 2025, but part of the vote had to be repeated in February this year after the commission found irregularities at 136 polling stations in 17 constituencies. The rerun confirmed SNSD candidate Sinisa Karan as the winner.

Republika Srpska's parliament has meanwhile adopted a series of measures challenging the authority of state institutions and the high representative.

New technology, old problems

The October 4 election will be held under an electoral framework substantially amended by the high representative in 2022 and 2024, incorporating safeguards intended to improve election integrity and address previous ODIHR recommendations.

For the first time, ballot scanners and biometric voter identification will be used at every polling station. About 12,000 devices supplied by Smartmatic are being deployed after delays linked to funding and procurement disputes.

Election officials told ODIHR that the technology could improve confidence and reduce opportunities for fraud, but raised concerns about the limited time available for training and implementation.

The Central Election Commission has also warned of staffing shortages, while confidence in the roughly 5,200 polling station committees remains low despite changes to their appointment process intended to make them more independent.

Long-standing concerns about the electoral system remain unresolved. Only people who identify as Bosniak, Croat or Serb can stand for the state presidency, while candidates must also meet residency requirements linked to Bosnia's two entities. ODIHR has repeatedly called for those restrictions to be removed.

The accuracy of the central voter register is another concern. ODIHR said it still includes deceased and non-resident voters, while aggregate information is not publicly available for independent scrutiny.

EU accession on hold

The political stalemate has also effectively frozen Bosnia's EU accession process.

Bosnia became an EU candidate country in December 2022 and the bloc agreed in March 2024 to open accession negotiations, subject to further reforms. But many of those reforms require legislation at state level, where the government has lacked a reliable majority since the coalition collapsed.

That has left Bosnia struggling to make progress at a time when Brussels is pressing candidate countries to demonstrate concrete institutional and rule-of-law reforms.

The economic consequences of political paralysis are also becoming more visible. Back in February, international rating agencies S&P Global Ratings and Moody’s affirmed Bosnia's sovereign credit ratings with stable outlooks, citing the resilience of the economy while warning that fiscal pressures and political gridlock remain key risks, the country’s central bank said on its website.

S&P Global Ratings affirmed the Federation of Bosnia and Herzegovina's rating in May but warned about rising pre-election spending, including the risk of higher transfers and wages adding to pressure on public finances.

The election is unlikely to produce a rapid solution to Bosnia's institutional problems. The country's constitutional system divides political power along ethnic lines, while a series of indirect elections will follow the October 4 vote to fill upper-house seats and other positions. The same coalition arithmetic that produced the current deadlock is likely to remain after the ballots are counted.