In October 2025, Timor-Leste will officially become the 11th member of the Association of Southeast Asian Nations (ASEAN), marking a historic milestone for the Southeast Asian region. This long-awaited accession affirms ASEAN’s vision of regional inclusion and recognises Timor-Leste’s two-decade-long journey toward statehood and international legitimacy. Yet, as regional leaders prepare to welcome Asia’s youngest nation into the fold, the broader picture raises difficult questions: Is ASEAN ready for Timor-Leste, or more pressingly, is ASEAN ready for itself?

A decade-long journey to membership

Timor-Leste’s road to ASEAN has been a protracted one. According to Sidharto R. Suryodipuro, Director General for ASEAN Cooperation at Indonesia’s Ministry of Foreign Affairs, Timor-Leste first applied for membership in 2011. After over a decade of evaluations and delays, including pandemic-related postponement, ASEAN granted “in-principle” approval in 2022. The final decision was confirmed during the 46th ASEAN Summit in May 2025, with formal induction scheduled for the 47th Summit in Kuala Lumpur this October.

For Timor-Leste, the benefits are clear: greater regional visibility, access to development cooperation, and the opportunity to participate in economic frameworks such as the Regional Comprehensive Economic Partnership (RCEP). The Straits Times reports that Singapore has already intensified its support through the enhanced STARS (eStars) programme, aimed at strengthening Timor-Leste’s institutional capacity and readiness for regional integration. During an official visit by Prime Minister Xanana Gusmão, Singapore’s Prime Minister Lawrence Wong pledged continued assistance and praised the country’s journey from conflict to stability.

The ASEAN integration paradox

Despite these affirmations, ASEAN faces a paradox. As reported by Lowy Institute, ASEAN has historically prioritised political inclusion over institutional preparedness, a trend evident in past accessions like Cambodia (1999), Laos and Myanmar (1997). The hope was that integration would catalyse convergence. Instead, disparities have widened. ASEAN’s vision of a single market and production base remains elusive, and intra-bloc trade hovers stubbornly around 25%. The ASEAN-X model, which allows for flexible participation, has enabled progress for more developed members but entrenched a two-speed system, exacerbating institutional gaps.

Timor-Leste’s entry risks compounding these challenges. Its governance systems remain underdeveloped, and its economy still heavily relies on petroleum. President José Ramos-Horta has openly acknowledged that full institutional maturity will take time. Yet, as ASEAN’s structural fatigue becomes more evident, the bloc’s ability to absorb another fragile member without deepening dysfunction is under question.

Geopolitical tensions and democratic contagion

The tension is further amplified by geopolitical frictions. Myanmar’s military junta, currently suspended from high-level ASEAN meetings due to its post-coup crackdown, has formally objected to Timor-Leste’s accession. According to Antaranews, Myanmar accused Dili of breaching ASEAN’s core non-interference principle by supporting the pro-democracy National Unity Government (NUG). In response, Ramos-Horta dismissed the complaint as “irrelevant,” stating that Timor-Leste’s full membership had already been confirmed. Civil society leaders, including Valentin da Costa of FONGTIL, interpret Myanmar’s resistance as a fear of democratic contagion, pointing to Dili’s consistent advocacy for human rights and civic freedoms in the region.

Moral diplomacy vs regional norms

Indeed, Timor-Leste has not shied away from moral diplomacy. In 2023, Gusmão warned ASEAN against legitimising authoritarian regimes, and both he and Ramos-Horta have openly supported Myanmar’s exiled government. As reported by UCANews, such actions contrast sharply with ASEAN’s customary silence and further strain the bloc’s foundational norms, namely consensus and non-intervention, which, while once stabilising, now often serve as barriers to action.

Institutional inertia and regional fragmentation

ASEAN’s inertia is most visible in its handling of the Myanmar crisis. The Five-Point Consensus, envisioned as a peace roadmap, has yielded no tangible results. Rather than acting decisively, ASEAN has settled into exclusion-without-alternative, suspending Myanmar’s participation, but avoiding any bolder moves. Similarly, in the South China Sea, ASEAN remains divided between claimant states and economic dependents of China, allowing Beijing to exploit internal disunity. Diplomatic effectiveness is increasingly undermined by internal fragmentation.

Even inter-member disputes reveal ASEAN’s institutional deficiencies. A leaked phone call between Thai and Cambodian officials recently led to political turmoil in Bangkok and ruptured bilateral ties. ASEAN, once again, offered no mechanism for mediation or de-escalation.

According to the Lowy Institute, these repeated failures signal that ASEAN’s “Way”, informal diplomacy and unanimous consent, is no longer sufficient. With every member wielding a veto, consensus often means paralysis. Non-interference has evolved from a principle of sovereignty into a licence for impunity.

Reform or relegation

To stay relevant, ASEAN must move beyond symbolism. Reform is overdue. The introduction of qualified majority voting in technical domains could streamline decision-making. The ASEAN-X model should be leveraged in sensitive areas like cyber defence and climate policy, not just trade. And the Secretariat, still underfunded and politically toothless, must be empowered to coordinate implementation and track commitments.

A litmus test for ASEAN’s future

Crucially, Timor-Leste’s accession should not be a ceremonial gesture. As a test case for ASEAN’s integrative capacity, it demands more than orientation workshops. Long-term mentoring, funding mechanisms, and institutional secondments must be part of the support package. As The Straits Times reports, Singapore’s eStars programme demonstrates how strategic investment in capacity-building can yield tangible results, but only if backed by sustained regional commitment.

A celebration and a challenge

Ultimately, Timor-Leste’s ASEAN entry is both a celebration and a challenge. It highlights the bloc’s inclusive aspirations while exposing its internal contradictions. If ASEAN wants to preserve its centrality in regional affairs, it must evolve from a reactive platform to a proactive force, capable of shaping outcomes, not just reacting to them.

As ASEAN prepares to raise the Timorese flag this October, it must ask not only what kind of member Timor-Leste will become, but what kind of organisation ASEAN itself aspires to be.