China has become Tajikistan’s number one trading partner. The development means Beijing has now surpassed Russia in trade volume with all five of the ex-Soviet Central Asian states.

In recent years, China has also taken the top trade ranking in relation to Kazakhstan, Uzbekistan, Kyrgyzstan and Turkmenistan, with the latter long extremely beholden to Chinese gas supply orders for its economic health.

According to Tajikistan Statistics Agency, from January to May, trade between Tajikistan and China reached $964mn, up nearly 30% y/y. China’s share in Tajikistan’s overall foreign trade thus hit 24.8%, slightly ahead of Russia’s 23.2%.

The boost to Chinese-Tajik trade was mainly brought about by Chinese exports to Tajikistan in the five months. They totalled $787mn. Tajik exports to neighbouring China were worth just $177mn.

Russia was ranked as Tajikistan’s leading trade partner for more than 20 years.

In 5M25, Russian-Tajik trade amounted to approximately $900mn, with a mere $42mn of that made up of Tajik exports. Trade was up 9.3% y/y.

Uzbekistan served as Tajikistan’s top trade partner during the 1990s, with bilateral trade hitting $250mn in 1995. Political tensions between Tashkent and Dushanbe toward the end of the decade triggered a sharp decline in the neighbouring countries’ trade as relations soured. It sank to only $13mn in volume by 2014. However, as relations improved, trade gradually rebounded. Tajikistan and Uzbekistan’s trade totalled $238mn in January to May.

China is also Tajikistan’s largest foreign investor. On that indicator, it overtook Russia in 2017. Official Tajik data shows Chinese investment in Tajikistan amounted to $5.1bn as of 2Q25. In contrast, Russian investments totalled around $2bn.

Looking at Tajikistan’s debt burden, China is also the country’s largest external creditor. Dushanbe’s debt to Beijing stands at around $1bn. That represents almost one-third of the country’s total external debt.