Moldova’s exports (chart) fell by 11.1% year-on-year in May and by 10.8% to €3.1bn in the 12 months to May 2025, reflecting ongoing external demand weakness and lower agricultural output, according to data from the National Bureau of Statistics.

The sharp decline continues a downward trend that began after 2022, when Moldova recorded an exceptional export performance driven largely by re-exports linked to Ukraine. The war in neighbouring Ukraine had significantly boosted both exports (on high re-exports) and imports during that period, but these flows have since normalised.

Meanwhile, Moldova’s imports increased by 8.8% y/y in May and by 13.1% y/y to €8.9bn (notably nearly three times the exports) over the 12-month period. Imports have followed a more complex path, surging in 2022 due to energy price shocks and re-export activity, moderating in 2023, and then resuming growth on the back of stronger domestic consumption in 2024.

Both export and import levels remain significantly above pre-pandemic volumes, though the pace of growth has diverged in recent months. The trade imbalance has widened as a result, with the rolling 12-month trade deficit reaching 33% of GDP as of May 2025. This marks an increase from 28% one year earlier and 24% in May 2019. The deficit had previously peaked at 35% in May 2023.

Moldova’s trade gap continues to be influenced by its dependency on energy imports, including all of its natural gas and the majority of its electricity. While re-export activity has subsided, energy costs and food supply fluctuations still impact the trade balance.

The weakening of exports, particularly to EU markets, reflects broader regional economic pressures and underlines Moldova’s vulnerability to external shocks and climate-related agricultural volatility.