Cities across Central Asia are bearing the brunt of the worsening climate crisis. Rising temperatures are fuelling a surge in heat-related deaths, economic disruption and infrastructure damage. 

According to a report from the World Bank and the Global Facility for Disaster Reduction and Recovery, the capitals of Uzbekistan, Kazakhstan, Kyrgyzstan and Turkmenistan are among the most affected.

Tashkent, Astana and Bishkek are already experiencing between 19 and 21 excess deaths per 100,000 people annually due to extreme heat. 

Uzbekistan’s southern cities of Termez and Turtkul are, meanwhile, among the country’s hottest, and climate projections suggest conditions will become increasingly severe. 

By 2090, Nukus is expected to endure up to 77 days annually of extreme heat stress—days when the “wet-bulb” globe temperature (WBGT) surpasses 30.5°C, making even light outdoor activity dangerous.

Both Termez and Turtkul are also projected to see a sharp rise in the number of “hot days,” defined as those exceeding the 95th percentile of historical maximum temperatures.

In Ashgabat, the figure climbs to as high as 28. 

Forecasts suggest that by 2090, cumulative heat-related deaths in major cities such as Tashkent and Astana could reach up to between 10,000 and 23,000 per year.

“Tens of thousands of people have died in Europe and Central Asia due to heat over the past two decades, and by 2050 this figure could double or triple in many cities, equalling the number of road accidents,” the report notes.

The study, which analysed 70 cities across the Europe and Central Asia (ECA) region, highlights how dense construction, limited green space and outdated infrastructure contribute to the “urban heat island” effect—an environmental phenomenon where city surfaces trap and radiate heat, raising local temperatures by several degrees.

Dark asphalt, for example, absorbs up to 95% of solar radiation. 

In Tashkent, widespread road expansion and mass parking have turned the city into a “real frying pan,” according to the report.

AI modelling suggests that by the 2050s, Tashkent’s liveability may decline so sharply that its population will begin to fall.

The economic costs are already mounting. 

Rising temperatures have resulted in the loss of over 87,000 full-time jobs across the region, with Uzbekistan suffering the highest toll—over 22,000 jobs lost. 

The tourism, construction, agriculture and transport sectors—especially those reliant on outdoor labour—have been particularly hard hit by lower productivity and shorter working hours.

Infrastructure in many cities, built during the Soviet era, is now buckling under climate stress. 

Kyrgyzstan reports that extreme temperatures damage around 200 kilometres (124 miles) of roads annually. This not only results in costly repairs but also disrupts critical supply chains and trade routes.

“During heatwaves, equipment breaks down, energy systems become overloaded, and supply chains come to a standstill,” the report says. “Extreme heat also reduces physical and mental performance. It slows workers down, shortens work hours, and reduces production, especially in sectors that are exposed to extreme heat.”

Healthcare systems are under pressure as well. 

Hospitals and emergency rooms in the region are struggling to treat a growing number of patients with heatstroke and chronic illness complications. 

Vulnerable populations—particularly the elderly and low-income residents—are most at risk.

Despite these challenges, the World Bank argues that cities still have time to act.

“They can make urban spaces cooler, such as by expanding tree canopies and creating parks and gardens; protect lives during extreme heat, such as through early warning systems; adapt infrastructure to a hotter future, including by equipping schools, hospitals and homes with passive cooling systems and using heat-resistant materials; and integrate heat-resilient principles into government programmes,” the report recommends.

Other proposals include installing cooling systems in public transport, shading bus stops and redesigning urban infrastructure with climate-resilient materials.

“Cities and mayors are taking the lead in designing, financing and implementing heat-resilient measures, but to succeed they need a clear mandate, sustainable funding and close coordination with national authorities,” said Megha Mukim, senior urban economist at the World Bank. “Immediate action can help save lives and strengthen the prosperity of cities in the ECA region for decades to come.”

Mukim emphasised that real progress hinges on “ensuring action on the ground: clearly delineating responsibilities, building municipal capacity and integrating heat resilience issues into the daily activities of government bodies—from zoning to budgets and public health planning.”

With more than 70% of the region’s population living in urban areas, the stakes are high.