The US Department of Agriculture has cut its forecasts for Russian and Ukrainian grain exports because of the Black Sea shipping war, and every rival exporter's price has gone up.

The department's monthly Grain: World Markets and Trade report, published on August 12 by its Foreign Agricultural Service, cuts Russia's 2026/27 wheat exports to 46mn tonnes and Ukraine's to 13.5mn, blaming disruption to Black Sea shipping since hostilities intensified in mid-July.

The report's own headline is elsewhere - EU grain imports rising and exports falling on the back of a crop wrecked by heat and drought - but the two findings are the same story from opposite ends.

Grain trade has spent four years being reshaped by this war, and this is the month the price data caught up with the shipping data. Russia has been the world's cheapest large wheat seller throughout; in August it is discounting while everyone else raises quotes, because a discount is worth nothing if the cargo cannot leave Novorossiysk. All three of that port's big grain terminals stopped work this week.

Everyone's price went up except Russia's

Since the July estimates, wheat export quotes rose sharply among every major exporter apart from Russia. Russian quotes fell $3 a tonne to $224 on early harvest pressure and mounting supplies with some export routes inaccessible.

EU quotes jumped $25 to $262 a tonne on expected import demand despite a much smaller crop; US quotes rose $26 to $321, Canadian $20 to $292, Australian $13 to $291 and Argentine $12 to $239 - still the next most competitive after Russia. The US season-average farm price was raised 20 cents to $6.20 a bushel.

A seller with the world's cheapest wheat and no way to load it is not a price-setter. Russia is discounting into a market that is repricing upward around it, which is the clearest measure yet of what the port campaign has cost Moscow.

The department cut Russian wheat exports for 2026/27 by 1.5mn tonnes to 46mn, citing "disruptions in the Black Sea hindering shipments, especially from ports in the Sea of Azov", and Ukraine's by 1mn tonnes to 13.5mn, on disruption to its deep seaports. Kazakhstan and Canada picked up 1mn tonnes each, to 10mn and 28.5mn.

Europe's smallest corn crop in two decades

EU wheat and coarse grain production for 2026/27 is now forecast at 264.8mn tonnes, down 8% on the year, after excessive heat and dryness through the late spring and summer cut yields on wheat and barley. Corn is forecast at 50.2mn tonnes - which would be the smallest EU corn crop in nearly 20 years.

EU corn imports are raised 1mn tonnes to 23.5mn as a result, and its own corn exports cut to 1.6mn. Barley exports, at 9.1mn tonnes in 2025/26 and the highest since 2015/16, are forecast to fall 19%.

Filling that gap is harder than it looks. Ukraine, normally a top corn supplier to the EU, is dealing with the same Black Sea shipping disruption; Brazil's exports have started slowly despite a record crop, as domestic biofuel demand absorbs the corn; and Ukrainian wheat into the bloc is still constrained by EU import policy, particularly for the Visegrad Group. The department notes significant recent EU purchases of US corn instead.

Even getting European grain to the coast is a problem. EU exports are starting the marketing year slowly because drought has dropped river levels and disrupted inland transport to port - the same low Rhine, Seine and Danube flows that Copernicus recorded through July.

Corn: the US takes the share

Global corn production is forecast up on a record crop in Zambia and bigger crops in Ukraine, Russia and the US, more than offsetting the further EU cut. Trade is fractionally lower.

US corn exports for 2026/27 are raised 2mn tonnes to 83mn on "reduced competition from other exporters" - the plainest statement in the report of who gains. Ukraine's corn exports are cut 1mn tonnes to 22mn and Russia's 200,000 tonnes to 3.8mn, both on Black Sea logistics; Brazil's are cut 1mn tonnes to 43mn on domestic demand. Chinese corn imports are cut 1mn tonnes to 5mn and sorghum imports 900,000 tonnes to 6.6mn.

Corn export bids barely moved. US bids rose $3 to $222 a tonne, Argentina's slipped $1 to $206, Brazil's were flat at $222, and Ukraine's fell $1 to $223 - with Odesa logistics pushing up and softer Turkish demand pulling down. Ukrainian corn is 9% cheaper than a year ago; US corn is 13% dearer.

Rice is the quiet market

Global rice production is fractionally higher, trade unchanged, and the action is all in prices. US quotes jumped $19 to $537 a tonne and Uruguayan $27 to $531, both on strong Latin American sales. Thai quotes fell $16 to $458 on weak demand, Vietnamese spiked $24 to $437 on limited supply, Pakistani fell $19 to $395 on weak Middle East sales and Indian rose $3 to $358 on African and East Asian interest.

Chinese rice imports are raised to 4.3mn tonnes for 2026 on large broken-rice purchases for feed, and Kenya's to 1mn after the government announced duty-free access for up to 490,000 tonnes.

Who is buying more

The wheat import revisions are a map of where policy and weather are biting. The UK's imports are raised 1.1mn tonnes to 3.6mn on reduced production prospects, and Pakistan's from 10,000 tonnes to 1mn after the government signalled it would buy in response to high domestic prices. Afghanistan's rise 200,000 tonnes to 4.8mn on stronger consumption growth.

Going the other way, Egypt's imports are cut 500,000 tonnes to 13mn on a large crop and higher opening stocks, Turkey's cut 500,000 to 5mn on big domestic production, Bangladesh's cut 700,000 to 7mn and Vietnam's 300,000 to 6.2mn on lower feed use.

Russia and Ukraine between them have lost 2.5mn tonnes of forecast wheat exports to a shipping war, and the wheat has not disappeared - it is sitting in silos on both sides of the Black Sea while Washington's exporters take the orders. That is the market's answer to a question both governments are still arguing about.