Poland’s ruling Law and Justice (PiS) party scooped the most votes in the election held on October 15 but appears unlikely to build a majority in the new parliament, a so-called late poll showed on October 16.

PiS won 36.6% in the late poll, ahead of the centre-right Civic Coalition headed by former PM and European Council President Donald Tusk at 31%.

Key to the likely reshaping of Poland’s political landscape was the centrist Third Way coming in at 13.5% and the poor showing of the far-right grouping Confederation – touted as the only possible coalition partner of PiS - at just 6.4%.

The Left won 8.6%, according to the late poll. Civic Coalition, the Third Way, and the Left appear likely to have a combined 248 seats in the 460-seat Sejm, the lower house of the Polish parliament, clearly above the minimum 231 required for a majority.

Poles turned out massively at the polling stations, with voting in some –  apparently ill-prepared points – finishing around 3 am.

The overall turnout was 72.9%, more than 11pp than in 2019.

The official results of the vote are expected on October 17.

The next move belongs to President Andrzej Duda who will nominate a prime minister after the new parliament convenes for the first time – likely next month.

The president is free in his choice and had hinted that he would offer a PiS candidate the first go at piecing together a majority. PiS officials have refrained from conceding a de facto defeat.