Headline inflation in Romania (chart) eased to 10.6% y/y in May from 11.2% y/y in April, the statistics office INS announced.
Food prices posted the steepest advance (+18.7% y/y in April) while prices of non-food goods increased by only 5.2% y/y as the energy prices were handled by the state through a complex (and costly) cap and subsidy scheme during the winter period until the market prices eventually fell in April-May.
Food prices remain, however, a challenge, particularly for low-income households where this category of goods accounts for an above-average share. The average share in Romania is already high compared to more developed European countries at 32.3% of the total.
Romania’s central bank, the National Bank of Romania (BNR), kept the refinancing rate at 7% at its May 10 board meeting in line with consensus expectations, balancing positive developments — robust economic growth in Q1 — with rising uncertainty prompted by the government’s fiscal policy and actions related to using Resilience Facility funds.
The economic patriotism strategy announced by the incoming Social Democrat government will likely make the BNR even more cautious.