Warsaw’s liberal mayor, Rafał Trzaskowski, edged ahead of right-wing populist rival Karol Nawrocki in Poland’s presidential election, according to an IPSOS exit poll on June 1.

Trzaskowski has secured 50.3% of the vote compared with Nawrocki’s 49.7%, with turnout at a high 72.8%. While the margin is razor-thin, election authorities are expected to confirm the result by tomorrow, but the strong turnout suggests Trzaskowski is likely to win.

A separate exit poll by OGB, conducted for the Nawrocki-aligned broadcaster TV Republika, put Trzaskowski narrowly ahead by 50.17% to 49.83%.

A Trzaskowski presidency would spell an end to Prime Minister Donald Tusk’s struggle to push through his legislative agenda, which has been blocked by incumbent President Andrzej Duda, a staunch ally of the populist Law and Justice (PiS) party that backed Nawrocki.

Nawrocki, speaking at his election event, expressed confidence that overnight results would shift in his favour.

Trzaskowski’s victory would leave PiS on the defensive, stripping it of its last significant power centre after the new president is sworn in at the Presidential Palace in Warsaw in August.

Tusk and his coalition, which has been divided on issues like abortion since coming to power in late 2023, would have a freer hand to pursue reforms and rebuild public support ahead of the next general election in 2027.

For PiS, the loss is likely to usher in a period of internal turmoil, with the party forced to fend off challenges from the far-right to maintain its position as the main opposition to Tusk’s coalition.

However, if the final results swing back in Nawrocki’s favour, it would place Tusk’s government in a precarious position, as Nawrocki could use his powers to block the prime minister’s policies, amplifying public frustration and potentially paving the way for PiS to return to power in 2027.