Polish manufacturers anticipate recovery as PMI’s growth well beats consensus in February

Polish manufacturers anticipate recovery as PMI’s growth well beats consensus in February
/ bne IntelliNews
By bne IntelliNews March 2, 2024

Poland's Purchasing Managers' Index (PMI) rose 0.8 points to 47.9 in February (chart), the economic intelligence company S&P Global said on March 1.

The reading missed the consensus, which assumed a gain of 1.1 points to 48.2. The indicator has now lingered below the 50-point mark separating contraction from growth for 22 consecutive months. 

The February decline extends the waiting time for a decisive recovery in Poland’s manufacturing sector, the green shoots of which are anticipated to appear shortly.

“The Polish PMI has now remained below 50 points for almost two years but optimism among [survey] respondents regarding the coming 12 months is improving. In February we should witness the continuation of the slow recovery of Polish manufacturing,” PKO BP said in a comment.

“The current downturns for output and new orders were extended to the longest registered since the survey began in 1998. That said, the rates of decline slowed since January and were among the weakest over the past two years,” S&P Global said in a comment.

Employment, purchasing and backlogged work all fell further, but manufacturers were increasingly optimistic regarding the next 12 months. So much, in fact, that "overall sentiment was the highest since June 2021 and above the long-run trend,” according to S&P Global. 

February data also revealed the greatest supply chain delays for over a year and a half, and rising input prices for only the second time in the past 11 months. Manufacturers continued to cut output prices, however, in order to boost competitiveness.

In real terms, Poland's producer price index (PPI) declined 9% year on year in January, following a revised fall of 6.9% y/y in December, the country’s statistics office GUS said in late February.

The most recent actual output data from Poland’s industrial sector – covering manufacturing, energy production, mining, and quarrying, as well as water and waste management – showed that industrial production bound back to expand 1.6% y/y in January after a revised slide of 3.5% y/y the preceding month, GUS showed in late February.

February industrial production and PPI data from GUS are due in the second half of February.