The New York Times on April 20 suggested that the “Istanbul death toll hints Turkey is hiding a wider coronavirus calamity”.

Compared to recent years, Istanbul recorded 2,100 more deaths than expected between March and April, the newspaper found, suggesting a hidden toll.

It said “data compiled by The New York Times from records of deaths in Istanbul indicate that Turkey is grappling with a far bigger calamity from the coronavirus than official figures and statements would suggest. The city recorded about 2,100 more deaths than expected from March 9 to April 12, based on weekly averages from the last two years, far more than officials reported for the whole of Turkey during that time.

“While not all those deaths are necessarily directly attributable to the coronavirus, the numbers indicate a striking jump in fatalities that has coincided with the onset of the outbreak, a preliminary indicator that is being used by researchers to cut through the fog of the pandemic and assess its full toll in real time.”

The newspaper report added that the government confirmed the country’s first death from COVID-19 on March 17 “but the statistics compiled by The Times suggest that even around that time, the number of deaths overall in Istanbul was already considerably higher than historical averages, an indication that the virus had arrived several weeks earlier.”

As far back as March 24, a Harvard academic was claiming that Turkey’s coronavirus outbreak was “out of control”.

The total number of confirmed COVID-19 deaths across Turkey as of April 21 was 2,259, with 95,591 infections. In terms of infections officially logged, Turkey has since the weekend exceeded Iran's toll (84,802 as of April 21) but its neighbour has recorded more deaths of people found to be COVID-19-positive, namely 5,209.