The director of population youth at Mashhad University of Medical Sciences has warned that the World Health Organization predicts Iran's fertility rate will fall below 1.36, with 26% of the population becoming elderly by 2051, Shahara News reported on May 14.

A country generally needs a replacement rate of 2.1 children and above to sustain its population. Ideally, a country needs a total fertility rate of 2.7 and above to show signs of growth. Iran has persistently seen a negative growth rate for the past several years. 

Dr Ahmadian, speaking at a press conference marking Population Week, which runs from May 13-19 under the slogan "All for a Young Iran", explained that when discussing population youth, two key factors are typically addressed: declining birth rates and an ageing population.

According to the latest statistics published by the World Health Organisation in 2023, the global ageing rate is predicted to be around 24%. In this report, Iran, with a population of about 81mn, ranks 18th globally, 9th in Asia, and 3rd regionally," Ahmadian said.

Discussing the Total Fertility Rate (TFR), which shows the average number of children born to a woman during her reproductive years, Ahmadian noted: "This indicator is the Achilles heel and key component of all population analyses. In 1990, this rate in Iran was about 3.95, but in 2020-2025, it has decreased to about 1.36."

The population youth director emphasised that the fertility rate should be above 2.5 for a dynamic and growing society. To merely maintain population levels without decline, the rate must be at least 2.1.

"Statistics professors say if this number falls below 1.1, we enter a 'population hole' where even with the best policies and programmes, it would take a hundred years to compensate for population decline," he warned.

Iran, which once experienced fertility rates above three and even four, is now facing a severe decline and approaching negative population growth. Meanwhile, the ageing population phenomenon is rapidly expanding. Due to extensive health services and high levels of care, life expectancy has increased, leading to an ageing society.

Statistics from 2021 show that more than 10% of Iran's population is elderly (over 60 years). This rate is predicted to reach 15% by 2031, exceed 20% by 2041 and surpass 26% by 2051.

Ahmadian expressed concern that if appropriate infrastructure for the elderly isn't established — which is currently lacking in Iran — the country will face a crisis. These individuals need social services, health insurance and retirement benefits, but without a young working population, pension funds won't be able to cover costs.

The population director stressed that population issues aren't limited to births; from marriage and divorce to the desire for childbearing, single-child and childless phenomena, mortality rates of children under 5 and problems of pregnant mothers— all must be seen as a comprehensive package for successful planning.

He also highlighted the critical role of media in collaborating and informing society: "Media plays a key role in information transfer and advocacy and should have better cooperation with various institutions, as their listeners and main audiences are the people."