Cuba’s fragile communist system is showing increasing signs of strain as the island grapples with deepening economic hardship, crumbling infrastructure, and dwindling external support, raising questions over how long the government can maintain stability in the face of growing pressures.

The collapse of communism in Cuba has been predicted for decades, particularly after the collapse of the Soviet Union, which once provided Havana with crucial economic support. The subsequent backing from Venezuela offered a lifeline, but as Venezuela’s own crisis worsened, this aid has largely dried up.

“China is willing to deal with Cuba, but it’s not ideologically committed to supporting it the way the Soviet Union or Venezuela were, and it’s not keen to deal with charity cases,” Philip Paterson, senior analyst, Latin America, at Oxford Analytica said during a recent webinar organised by the think-tank.

Meanwhile, life within Cuba has gone from “bad to worse”, Paterson said, with longstanding issues such as food shortages and blackouts intensifying. The pandemic further battered the economy, and the vital tourism industry has yet to recover to pre-pandemic levels.

In 2022, a fire at Cuba’s main oil storage facility revealed the fragility of the country’s power infrastructure, which has suffered from years of underinvestment and is now “literally crumbling”, according to the analyst, causing frequent nationwide blackouts.

The island’s dual currency system, where those with access to US dollars can buy goods unavailable to others, has deepened the societal divisions that the revolution once promised to eradicate.

US sanctions continue to compound Cuba’s challenges. The reclassification of Cuba as a state sponsor of terrorism has made travel to the United States more difficult for anyone who has visited the island, and it has placed additional restrictions on companies seeking to do business there. Many tour operators have stopped operating in Cuba, cutting off a critical source of foreign currency.

In 2021, Cuba witnessed its largest protests in nearly two decades, prompting a crackdown by the government that has so far stifled further large-scale demonstrations. Historically, one factor that helped Havana avoid widespread social unrest was the tendency of critics to leave the country, often for the US. However, efforts by Washington to remove special privileges for Cuban immigrants have largely closed this “safety valve”, said Paterson. 

Another factor that differentiates the current period from earlier crises is leadership. President Miguel Díaz-Canel, who belongs to the post-revolution generation, does not command the same credibility as the Castro brothers, even if he remains committed to the ideology of the revolution, according to the analyst.

“Expectations of government collapse are writ large now,” Paterson told the webinar, pointing to reduced external assistance, increasing external pressure, and a leadership that lacks the historic legitimacy of its predecessors.

Determining what might spark significant change remains difficult, and Paterson cautioned that a potential trigger could be something no one has predicted.

“We’re certainly not predicting communism will fall this year or next, or at any specific time,” Paterson said. “But it’s worth flagging that the system is flagging more than before, and sooner or later, something is going to give.”

For now, Cuba’s government appears determined to hold on, but the combination of domestic hardships, frustrated aspirations among younger Cubans, and the absence of the lifelines that once sustained the system may be pushing the island closer to a turning point.