A new global climate report warns that the world is on the brink of irreversible damage, with less than three years remaining to prevent the worst consequences of global warming. The findings come amid sluggish international action ahead of the COP30 summit, scheduled for later this year in Brazil.

The Indicators of Global Climate Change report, led by University of Leeds climate scientist Piers Forster, finds that human-induced warming reached 1.36°C in 2024, pushing average global temperatures to 1.52°C when combined with natural climate variability.

“We are in dangerous waters,” the authors said, noting that the remaining global carbon budget—representing the emissions that can still be released while keeping temperatures below 1.5°C—is likely to be exhausted in under three years at current emission rates.

“This means the window to stay within 1.5°C is essentially shut,” the report said. “Even if we can bring temperatures back down in future, it will be a long and difficult road.”

The report underpins mounting concern ahead of COP30, where countries are expected to present updated Nationally Determined Contributions (NDCs) under the legally binding Paris Agreement. These national climate plans are intended to show how each government will cut greenhouse gas emissions and adapt to warming already underway. However, only 25 countries, representing just 20% of global emissions, have submitted their new plans to date. In Africa, just Somalia, Zambia and Zimbabwe have done so.

The disparity between climate ambition and action is particularly stark in Africa, where the report cites projections of a 30% drop in crop revenues and 50mn people at risk of losing access to water. The African continent is now experiencing its deadliest climate crisis in over a decade, the authors said.

"Aligning climate plans with development goals could lift 175mn people out of poverty," the report added, calling for wealthier nations to lead on mitigation and finance.

Despite binding obligations under the Paris Agreement, just five G20 members—Canada, Brazil, Japan, the United States and the United Kingdom—have submitted 2035 targets. The G20 is collectively responsible for around 80% of global emissions.

“Another worrying factor is that just ten of the updated nationally determined contributions have reaffirmed or strengthened commitments to move away from fossil fuels,” the report noted. It said that the climate plans of the EU, China and India will be critical in “testing their climate leadership”.

The report also criticises the gap between economic and climate decision-making. “If we treated climate data as we do financial reports, panic would ensue after each dire update,” the authors wrote. “Yet while governments pivot quickly during economic downturns, they have been far slower to respond to what the Earth’s vital signs are telling us.”

As UNFCCC Climate Week in Addis Ababa approaches in September, the focus will shift to financing and support for countries still preparing their plans. The summit aims to align global efforts to reach net-zero emissions by 2050, with the goal of securing a just and equitable transition for developing nations.

“Our hope is that countries submit ambitious and credible plans well before COP30,” the report concludes. “If they do, this will finally close the gap between acknowledging the climate crisis and making decisive efforts to address it.”