Record levels of immigration are dominating political debate in the world’s wealthiest countries. But there is a latent trend, still bubbling under the surface, which might soon occupy the minds of Western policymakers: emigration.

From California and Connecticut to Britain and Germany, trickles of individuals from crucial demographic groups have started moving to greener pastures, with many more threatening to turn that trickle into a flood.

In America, the situation is straightforward; people from a wide variety of backgrounds in wealthy, progressive states like California, Illinois and New York have become tired of the high taxes, housing costs and crime rates imposed on them by their state governments. Those people have taken advantage of America’s federal system to move to states such as Texas, Florida and North Carolina, where they can create wealth and live more freely.

Since 2010, those three states have experienced net emigration exceeding a combined 6.8mn, a trend which has rapidly grown since Covid-19. By contrast, the latter three states have seen almost 5mn strong net immigration in the same period.

Large European economies are unlikely to see net emigration anytime soon but the risk of losing some of the most productive and inventive members of society is quickly becoming a reality. Take Britain, for example, which saw the world’s second-largest exodus of millionaires in 2024, beaten only by the People’s Republic of China and topping countries such as India, Russia and Brazil.

The departure of just under 10,000 millionaires may not seem like a big problem until you consider that Britain relies on an ever-shrinking share of productive workers to pay for its ever-increasing health, welfare and national debt-servicing budgets. Among that small share of workers, the top 1% of earners pay almost 30% of the total tax take, to say nothing of their wider contribution to society.

The United Arab Emirates, for example, has been a major beneficiary of Britain’s millionaires’ exodus while also taking in scores of wealthy refugees from Western Europe, Canada, India, China and Australia. But compared to the United States, there are much slimmer pickings when it comes to finding a freer, more prosperous jurisdiction in which to base one’s life, particularly for non-High Net Worth Individuals (HNWIs). The result is ‘tax competition’ between countries.

The latest Liberty International Digital Nomad Tax Freedom Initiative index demonstrates tax competition is rapidly increasing, providing downtrodden European workers and wealth creators an escape from their stagnating home countries.

From South America and the Mediterranean to the Balkans and the Gulf, an expanding number of countries are offering favourable immigration and tax rules to so-called digital nomads who perform their jobs and business activities remotely.

There are 40 countries which currently offer Digital Nomad Visas (DNVs). Liberty International’s index ranks them based on benefits such as length of stay, the simplicity of obtaining a visa, tax benefits and minimum income requirements.

This year’s clear digital nomad victor was Ecuador, which offers two-year stays to digital nomads with a relatively low-income threshold of €1,350 and zero tax on all foreign earnings. For Europeans looking for warm welcoming destinations closer to home, Malta offers a simple visa process and an equally optimal tax arrangement, albeit with a higher threshold of €3,500.

Unsurprisingly, some of the lowest-ranked DNVs are being offered by relatively wealthy European countries, which seem unwilling to escape the high-tax mindset. Czechia and Cyprus’ DNVs bring up the rear of Liberty International’s index with relatively high tax rates. Czechia’s complex application process and relatively short stay period consign it to plum last.

From South America to Southeast Asia via the Caribbean, Southern Europe and East African islands, a plethora of countries are competing to attract productive Western Europeans to their shores. The prospects of better weather, low cost of living, greater personal freedoms and a smaller tax bill are likely to continue syphoning productive Europeans from their home countries if circumstances stay the same.

There are two key lessons to learn from this. First, for middle and high middle-income countries, embracing a low tax, pro-growth economic model with tax incentives for foreign workers and businesses is likely to pay dividends. Secondly, for Europe’s stagnant large economies, warning signs are flashing. Their most productive members of society are up for grabs and the rest of the world is starting to pay attention. Don’t wait for the last productive workers to turn off the lights before giving them the freedom, opportunity and prosperity they so desire.

Aleksandra Jelesijevic is a writing fellow with Young Voices Europe and Events Manager at the John Locke Institute. Aleksandra is based in Belgrade, Serbia.