Russia will turn on the ruble “printing press” to cope with its first economic slowdown since the February 2022 start of its war with Ukraine and this will inevitably impact the countries of Central Asia.

That’s the expectation of Kazakhstani financier Rasul Rysmambetov, as reported by RFE/RL’s Azattyk Asia service on July 16.

“To stimulate the economy in Russia, they will print the ruble, weakening their currency. This means that Russian goods will flow to us. The population in Russia will become poorer, solvent demand will fall, and they will see us [in Central Asia] as a market for their goods,” Rysmambetov was reported as saying.

Previous episodes in which the ruble weakened saw the Kazakhstani tenge (KZT) lose value after a time lag, with Astana moving to protect Kazakh producers who cannot compete with Russian rivals when they benefit from a cheap ruble.

A concern is that the cooling Russian economy, now very much a war economy, could slip into recession. This could have a significant impact on Tajikistan, Kyrgyzstan and Uzbekistan, countries that are highly reliant on remittances from migrant workers in Russia.

Russia, despite rising xenophobia towards Central Asian migrants, remains the main place for such workers to earn money.

According to  World Bank, in 2024, remittances from labour migrants accounted for as much as 45% of Tajikistan’s GDP, while for Kyrgyzstan the figure was 24% and for Uzbekistan it was 14%.

The World Bank has also calculated that in Kyrgyzstan, the poverty rate among families receiving remittances from relatives abroad is less than 10%, but without these transfers it would exceed 50%.

Another potential consequence of a slowed Russian economy, particularly in the case of a hard landing following its growth phase, would be a reduction in its investment potential.

“Russia may reduce investments in Central Asian countries. In Kazakhstan, we already see this in the thermal power plant projects that Russia has refused to implement,” Azattyk cited another expert on the Kazakh economy as saying.