Albania’s ruling Socialist Party is on track to secure a fourth consecutive term in office, according to the first national exit poll released after voting closed in the May 11 general election.

The poll, published by Albania Post shortly after polling stations shut at 7pm local time, projects that Prime Minister Edi Rama’s Socialists will win 79 seats in the 140-seat parliament — five more than they secured in the 2021 election, as reported by Top-Channel TV.

The opposition Democratic Party (PD), led by former president and prime minister Sali Berisha, is expected to take 54 seats with around 38% of the vote. The result, if confirmed, would mark another setback for the centre-right party, which has struggled to recover from internal divisions and a prolonged leadership battle.

Several smaller parties are also projected to gain representation in the new parliament. Tom Doshi’s Social Democratic Party (PSD) could win three seats, while businessman Agron Shehaj’s Opportunity Party is forecast to take two seats. 

The Together Movement, led by left-wing activist Arlind Qori, is projected to secure one seat in Tirana, though Qori himself may not enter parliament. Lulzim Basha, the former Democratic Party leader now heading a splinter party, is expected to win a single mandate. The Nisma Shqipëria Becomes coalition, led by lawyer Adriatik Lapaj, is not expected to secure any seats.

The vote follows a lively campaign dominated by Albania’s economic issues ranging from wages and pensions to support for small businesses and farmers, as well as Albania’s ongoing efforts to join the EU.

Rama has promised to deliver EU membership within five years, citing progress on accession talks. He has also stressed Albania’s rapid GDP growth, increasing prosperity and falling unemployment during his party’s three terms in power. 

Berisha, meanwhile, has pledged sweeping tax cuts and subsidies for key sectors of the economy.

The Socialists have governed Albania since 2013 and are seeking a fourth term with a renewed mandate to continue reforms linked to EU accession. The country, which gained EU candidate status in 2014, formally opened accession talks in 2022.

The Democratic Party has been weakened by internal strife, including a violent split between Berisha and Basha that culminated in Berisha supporters storming party headquarters in 2022. The turmoil has eroded the party’s ability to present a unified challenge to Rama’s increasingly entrenched administration.

Turnout in the May 11 election was estimated at 41.4% at 6pm, around four percentage points lower than in 2021. For the first time, voting was extended to the Albanian diaspora, with around 191,000 citizens abroad eligible to vote by mail. The final count is expected within 48 hours.

Voting was largely peaceful, though small-scale scuffles between rival supporters were reported in some parts of the country. Campaigning was marked by sharp personal attacks, corruption allegations and the increasing influence of social media, despite a recent ban on TikTok.