Serbia recorded its first trade surplus with Germany in 20 years in 2024, the German-Serbian Chamber of Commerce (AHK) said on June 24.

Speaking at a press conference in Belgrade, AHK president Milan Grujić said trade between the two countries reached €9bn last year, with Serbia posting a €293mn surplus — a rare outcome for countries trading with Germany, one of the world’s largest exporters.

“There are few countries globally with a trade surplus with Germany,” Grujić noted. “This result highlights the growing competitiveness of Serbian exports and the strength of our economic partnership.”

Serbian exports to Germany totalled €4.6bn in 2024, compared with €4.4bn in imports. This marked a notable shift from previous years, when Germany consistently maintained a surplus.

The positive trade balance comes despite a 2.6% decline in Germany’s total foreign trade volume globally. By contrast, German-Serbian trade rose 2%, reflecting the increasing integration of Serbia into the German and European supply chains.

More than 900 German-backed companies operate in Serbia, employing around 80,000 people. Grujić emphasised that investor sentiment remains strong, with 88% of surveyed firms indicating they would choose Serbia again as an investment destination — a rise from last year.

Still, the chamber’s annual business climate survey, conducted in March, revealed growing concerns among German companies. The outlook for Serbia’s economic performance in 2025 has dimmed, and only 34% of firms now rate their business as good, down from 39% last year. The share of dissatisfied companies more than doubled, rising to 13%.

Expectations for employment and investment also declined. While 31% of firms plan to hire in 2025, this is down six percentage points from the previous year. At the same time, 33% plan to increase investment, compared to 40% in 2024.

“The results indicate that while Serbia remains an attractive destination, global uncertainty and shifting corporate priorities are prompting some firms to put expansion plans on hold,” Grujić said.

EU accession remains a key concern for German investors. Of those surveyed, 85 respondents said further European integration is vital for improving the business environment. Other key issues identified include fighting corruption, improving legal security and enhancing transparency in public procurement.

Despite the concerns, firms praised Serbia’s workforce, infrastructure development and the dual vocational education system. Many companies reported taking steps to attract and retain talent, including offering above-market wages, increasing automation and expanding cooperation with educational institutions.

Looking ahead, companies cited global and local political and economic uncertainty, rising labour costs, and declining demand as the main risks to business in 2025. Notably, changes in US economic policy were not seen as a significant factor.