The International Monetary Fund (IMF) has commenced its first review of Argentina under President Javier Milei's new Extended Fund Facility (EFF) $20bn programme, with meetings between the Fund's team and government economic officials already underway.

Despite market estimates pooled by La Nación suggesting Argentina has not met net reserve accumulation targets for this period, the Ministry of Economy remains confident that strong fiscal and monetary performance will secure approval for a scheduled $2bn disbursement this month.

"Everything is fine with the Fund. We're very calm. The $1.5bn from the Bond 30 fund helped. These aren't 'borrowed reserves,' as some say. They're real because it's an issue in pesos," sources close to Economy Minister Luis Caputo told La Nación. "In addition, the $2bn from the repo came in. And, above all, they see very strong growth and a drop in inflation, which continues to surprise them."

Former IMF Western Hemisphere director Claudio Loser believes the Fund will likely overlook the reserve shortfall. "I think they will forgive them even if they (the IMF) then ask for more later," Loser told Reuters.

The IMF has expressed support for Argentina's sweeping economic reforms, particularly as inflation continues to cool and foreign currency reserves continue to be built up, albeit at a lower rate than required.

Following the implementation of Milei's austerity measures, the country's economy expanded by 5.8% y/y in the first quarter of 2025, marking its strongest performance since 2022.

This review represents a crucial test of Argentina's relationship with the IMF under the libertarian president's administration. While the failure to meet the IMF’s targets could result in stricter measures being implemented going forward, an approval of the latest disbursement would signal the IMF’s strong faith in the Milei administration’s efforts to improve Argentina’s economic prospects.