Analysts are weighing up whether Turkey’s president Recep Tayyip Erdogan will halt imports of gas from Iran and cancel other trade with the Islamic Republic in order to satisfy US President Donald Trump’s demand that countries cease doing business with the Iranians.

Turkey is Iran’s third-largest trading partner and last year sourced around 13% of its natural gas imports from its neighbour, with the shipments equivalent to 7.7bn cubic metres. Bilateral trade stood at around $3.1bn in the first half of this year, down 3% from 1H25.

“Erdogan would not do anything to upset Trump and jeopardise improving ties with Washington in the run-up to elections in less than two years,” Nihat Ali Ozcan, a strategist with Ankara-based think tank TEPAV, was quoted as saying by Bloomberg on August 25, adding: “Ankara would clearly side with Washington, even if it is forced to secure more expensive energy supplies elsewhere before winter.”

The US is seeking to economically isolate Iran in an attempt at forcing Tehran to capitulate in the conflict reignited by Trump and Israeli PM Benjamin Netanyahu at the end of February with a bombing blitz. Washington has been unable to achieve victory militarily.

Trump officials refer to the new move against Iran as “Operation economic outcast” and talk of "the single greatest financial offensive ever".

US Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent said on August 24 that any country that chooses a continuation of business with Iran after a certain time period, which he did not specify, can anticipate economic punishment from the Trump administration.

Trump said he would get on the phone to world leaders to communicate his specific expectations. A call from the Oval Office to Erdogan can be expected.

The US leader has frequently praised Erdogan as a good ally with whom he can work effectively.

If forced to end its gas relationship with Iran, which is based on a cross-border pipeline, Turkey could replace imports by buying in more shipments of liquefied natural gas, or LNG. The US is a key LNG supplier.

Data from the International Trade Centre show how difficult it would be for Turkey, the only Nato member to share a border with Iran, to cease all commerce with the Iranians without significantly damaging its economy.

The figures list Turkey’s top imports from Iran in 2025 as:

• Aluminium and articles thereof – $525mn
• Copper and articles thereof – $406mn
• Edible fruit and nuts – $329mn
• Plastics and articles thereof – $273mn
• Zinc and articles thereof – $235mn