Polish Prime Minister Donald Tusk has announced a new "national doctrine" aimed at ensuring Poland develops the most powerful army and economy in the region, as the country prepares for "an era of great threats and challenges."

Speaking during a party convention in Warsaw on April 26, Tusk outlined his government's ambitions, stating, "The aim of the national doctrine is to have the strongest army in continental Europe and the strongest economy in the region." He emphasised that Poland must be prepared for a "battle for survival," referencing Russia's continued aggression towards Ukraine and instability in Europe.

Three years ago, Poland gave the go-ahead to new legislation aiming to boost the country’s defence capabilities by enlarging the army from the current 100,000 people to 300,000 as well as earmarking more money for the modernisation of equipment. Poland plans to spend PLN158.9bn ($39.3bn) on defence in 2024, according to the government's approved budget, around 4.2% of GDP, one of the highest defence spending rates among Nato members.

Plans for 2025 are even more ambitious with PLN118bn ($29.4bn) for defence in 2025, or 3% of GDP, in direct funding. When the extra-budgetary funds (like the Armed Forces Support Fund) are included, total defence spending is expected to approach 5% of GDP – a target that US President Donald Trump has called on all Nato members to reach.

Tusk stressed that Poland would not succumb to complacency and outlined a vision for a more self-reliant and resilient state. "We must finally, after decades, stop counting on others. We must build our strength ourselves," he said. "The most important goal today is for Poland to be safe and sovereign regardless of the changing circumstances."

The national doctrine will involve significant investment in defence and economic development, although Tusk did not reveal specific figures during his speech. His government has already pledged to maintain defence spending at more than 4% of GDP this year.

Tusk also linked the doctrine to a broader political aim of restoring Poland’s influence within the European Union. "Poland must be strong not only militarily and economically, but also politically, especially in the European Union," he said. Poland currently holds the rotating chairmanship of the European Council.

The Ukraine conflict has lifted Poland’s profile and status in Europe. As a frontier state on the troubled eastern flank of the EU, the rest of the EU have looked to Poland’s lead on containing the threat of a possible Russian invasion. Tusk described the new era as one in which "only the strong will be able to ensure their security and development."

According to Notes from Poland on April 26, the doctrine is expected to be implemented through legislative initiatives and funding programmes in the coming months.

"Our task is to ensure that Poland never again finds itself in a position of vulnerability," Tusk declared. "We must be ready for every scenario."

Strong economy with some problems

The economy has also already been and out performer in Europe, has still be impacted by high inflation and underinvestment as a result of the instability caused by the Ukrainian conflict and the polycrisis  in general.

In 2022, Poland's GDP grew by a strong 5.3%, driven by strong post-pandemic recovery and government spending, particularly on defence and social programmes. However, inflation surged to over 14%, one of the highest rates in the EU, eroding real incomes and consumer confidence that year.

Growth slowed sharply in 2023, with GDP expanding by just 0.2%, according to Eurostat. High borrowing costs, declining private investment, and weaker exports amid the broader European slowdown weighed heavily on the economy.

For 2024, Poland's economy is forecast to rebound modestly, with growth projected at around 2.8% by the European Commission and inflation has been falling steadily.

Compared to the EU as a whole, Poland has consistently maintained stronger GDP growth over the past decade, and its public debt remains relatively low at around 50% of GDP, compared with the EU average of nearly 85%. However, the cost-of-living crisis and a tight labour market have created internal pressures that the new government is seeking to address through investment incentives and fiscal discipline, although the arrival of some two million Ukrainian war refugees has alleviated the labour shortage and given the economy a consumption-driven boost in the last two years.

According to the European Commission’s Spring 2024 forecast, the EU economy grew by 3.5% in 2022, stagnated in 2023 with growth of 0.6%, and is expected to expand by about 1.3% in 2024—meaning Poland’s growth will again outpace the bloc this year.

According to the latest World Economic Outlook (WEO)  published by the International Monetary Fund (IMF) in April 2025, Poland's economy is expected to grow by 3.1% in 2025. Inflation is projected to moderate further to 4.5% by the end of the year, down from higher levels in 2023 and 2024.

The IMF praised Poland’s strong fundamentals, particularly its low public debt and improved labour market. However, the report also highlighted the weaker private investment, external shocks from the eurozone, and ongoing fiscal pressures from high defence spending and social programmes.

The IMF expects Poland's growth rate to remain above the eurozone average in 2025, supported by recovering consumer demand, inflows of EU structural funds, and stabilising interest rates. Nevertheless, it recommended that Poland tighten its fiscal policy gradually to rebuild fiscal buffers and ensure that defence spending does not crowd out investment in other sectors.

"While Poland remains well-positioned for medium-term growth, structural reforms to boost productivity and investment will be critical to sustaining economic convergence with western Europe," the IMF said in the WEO.