Turkish economy grew 3.8% y/y in Q2, beating the market consensus forecast of 3.5%, the statistics institute TUIK announced on September 10. The economy has grown by a revised 2.5% in the first quarter while H1 GDP growth stood at 3.1%.
The markets were expecting a more moderate growth in the second quarter, however, Turkey showed a better than expected performance although deterioration in preliminary indicators and on-going political tensions still keeps pessimistic estimations for the remaining of the year.
On the production side, services sector, which accounts to 58.4% of the economy in real terms, grew 4.1%, thanks to the significant growth rates achieved by financial services and insurance (9.1% growth in Q2, 12.6% share in overall GDP), wholesale and retail trade (2.6% growth in Q2, 13% share in overall GDP) and transportation (2.3% growth in Q2, 12.6% share in total) industries. Industrial production, which accounts to 34.6% of the economy in real terms, also grew 4.1% while manufacturing industry (25.9% share in overall GDP) grew 5% and construction output (5.9% share in total) grew 2% in the quarter. Agricultural production also showed a 6.7% growth in Q2 and took a 7.3% share in overall GDP.
On the consumption side, private consumption (65.6% share in Q2 in real terms) growth accelerated to 5.6% in the second quarter from 4.6% in Q1 while government consumption (11% share) growth jumped to 7.2% from 2.5%. Gross fixed capital formation (25.8% share) growth also jumped to 9.7% in the quarter from 0.4% a quarter ago, thanks to significant 11.4% growth in private sector’s investments (21.8% share in overall GDP). Exports (26.2% share in overall GDP), on the contrary, declined 2.1% in Q1.
Calendar-adjusted GDP growth stood at 3.8% y/y in Q2 while seasonally and calendar-adjusted growth stood at 1.3% q/q, TUIK data also showed. TUIK also calculated per capita GDP at $10,390 in the quarter.
Commenting on Q2 GDP data, Finance Minister Mehmet Simsek said on September 10 in a written statement that overall GDP growth in 2015 will possibly come below the government target of 4% due to political uncertainties and unfavorable conditions in the export markets, however, Turkish economy will continue moderate growth trend in the remaining quarters of the year.
|
Real GDP growth by Sectors |
||||||||
|
(%) |
2014 |
Q1/14 |
Q2/14 |
Q3/14 |
Q4/14 |
H1/15 |
Q1/15 |
Q2/15 |
|
Agriculture, forestry and fishing |
-2.1 |
3.7 |
-2.7 |
-5.1 |
1.3 |
5.2 |
2.9 |
6.7 |
|
Industry |
3.5 |
6.3 |
3.3 |
2.8 |
1.8 |
2.3 |
0.4 |
4.1 |
|
Mining and quarrying |
5.6 |
7.7 |
8.6 |
4.2 |
2.4 |
-6.4 |
-8.1 |
-5.1 |
|
Manufacturing |
3.7 |
6.5 |
2.9 |
2.5 |
2.7 |
3.1 |
1.2 |
5.0 |
|
Electricity, gas, steam and air conditioning supply |
4.1 |
3.9 |
4.9 |
7.0 |
1.4 |
1.6 |
1.3 |
1.9 |
|
Water supply, sewerage, waste management and remediation activities |
10.8 |
11.7 |
10.6 |
11.7 |
9.2 |
7.9 |
6.8 |
8.8 |
|
Construction |
2.2 |
5.8 |
3.4 |
2.0 |
-2.1 |
-0.3 |
-2.8 |
2.0 |
|
Services |
4.1 |
6.0 |
3.8 |
3.4 |
3.2 |
4.1 |
4.1 |
4.1 |
|
Wholesale and retail trade |
1.8 |
3.7 |
0.7 |
0.8 |
1.9 |
1.8 |
1.1 |
2.6 |
|
Transportation and storage |
2.8 |
3.7 |
2.9 |
2.7 |
2.1 |
1.8 |
1.3 |
2.3 |
|
Accomodation and food service activities |
2.8 |
1.7 |
2.8 |
4.0 |
1.5 |
3.7 |
4.9 |
2.6 |
|
Information and communication |
3.3 |
-2.2 |
5.6 |
3.2 |
6.6 |
4.3 |
9.5 |
-0.6 |
|
Financial and insurance activities |
7.0 |
14.0 |
7.1 |
5.2 |
3.0 |
7.8 |
6.7 |
9.1 |
|
Real estate activities |
2.6 |
2.1 |
2.1 |
2.4 |
3.8 |
4.0 |
4.1 |
4.0 |
|
Professional, scientific and technical activities |
10.8 |
11.8 |
9.8 |
10.8 |
10.7 |
12.4 |
14.1 |
10.2 |
|
Administrative and support service activities |
5.5 |
7.2 |
5.4 |
4.4 |
4.9 |
5.7 |
6.4 |
4.9 |
|
Public administration and defence; compulsory social security |
2.4 |
4.2 |
3.6 |
1.9 |
0.3 |
0.9 |
0.2 |
1.7 |
|
Education |
6.5 |
5.7 |
6.3 |
6.6 |
7.6 |
5.4 |
6.6 |
4.1 |
|
Human health and social work activities |
5.6 |
5.0 |
6.9 |
6.2 |
4.3 |
3.0 |
4.5 |
1.4 |
|
Arts, entertaintment and recreation |
6.9 |
12.5 |
7.4 |
5.5 |
1.7 |
3.7 |
2.4 |
5.3 |
|
Other service activities |
2.2 |
3.3 |
2.0 |
2.2 |
1.3 |
-0.2 |
0.1 |
-0.5 |
|
Activities of household as employers |
2.8 |
1.6 |
-1.8 |
5.8 |
5.3 |
-1.5 |
0.9 |
-5.2 |
|
Sectoral total |
3.3 |
6.0 |
3.2 |
1.9 |
2.6 |
3.6 |
2.8 |
4.3 |
|
Financial intermediation services indirectly measured |
7.3 |
16.7 |
10.3 |
2.6 |
2.5 |
12.6 |
9.6 |
15.8 |
|
Taxes-subsidies |
2.5 |
5.4 |
0.6 |
1.1 |
3.2 |
7.9 |
6.5 |
9.4 |
|
Gross domestic product (Purchaser's price) |
2.9 |
5.1 |
2.4 |
1.8 |
2.7 |
3.1 |
2.5 |
3.8 |
|
source: tuik |
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