The unemployment rate in Poland increased minimally by 0.1pp y/y to come in at 5.2% in April, the Ministry of Family and Social Policy said in an estimate on May 6.

The unemployment rate in Poland has been stuck at around 5% for nearly four years now, the lowest level since the early 1990s. With 2025 expected to show a continued economic recovery – GDP growth is projected at around 3% - 3.5%, compared to 2.9% in 2024 – the labour market will remain tight.

That is no longer expected to intensify cost pressures in the economy to the point of boosting inflation much. 

At 4.9% y/y, the inflation rate turned out lower than estimates in the first quarter before falling further to just 4.2% y/y in April, according to preliminary data from the statistical office GUS. That prompted the National Bank of Poland (NBP) to moot an interest rate cut as soon as May.

Low unemployment and the still relatively strong wage growth also support private consumption, and thus GDP growth, by driving up real wages - even though their growth rate is expected to be less dynamic in 2025 than in the preceding years.

Poland’s company wages grew 7.7% y/y in March, the growth rate easing by 0.2pp versus the preceding month, latest data from the statistics office GUS showed in late April. New wage data from GUS is expected later this month. 

In monthly terms, the unemployment rate declined 0.1pp in the fourth month, the ministry also said. 

There were just over 804,000 registered unemployed at the end of April, according to the ministry. In nominal terms, the number of the unemployed increased by 7,000 y/y, while retreating by 25,000 versus March.

According to the most recent Eurostat data – compiled using a different methodology – Poland’s unemployment rate was 2.7% in March, the second-lowest in the EU behind Czechia.

GUS will publish the official April unemployment rate in the last week of May.