Spring is typically a time of political upheaval in Mongolia, a season when protesters take to the streets and politicians find ways to disrupt the status quo. This year is no different. 

The country’s coalition government, formed less than a year ago on the premise that it could increase political stability and push forward large-scale infrastructure projects, is edging towards collapse amid protests and internal strife.

The situation in Ulaanbaatar is fluid, with daily developments unfolding in rapid succession.

On May 21, the Mongolian People’s Party (MPP) voted behind closed doors in a party congress to oust the Democratic Party (DP) from the coalition government. The vote doesn’t automatically end the coalition, but the fractures could be beyond repair.

MPP alleges violation

The MPP alleges that the DP violated a cooperation agreement with coalition members when some of its members supported calls from protesters for the prime minister to resign. DP members responded by saying that they have a right to be critical of the MPP.

As the largest party in the 126-member Great Hural, the MPP is meeting to determine if it will move forward with the government alone or forge a new coalition. The MPP holds 68 seats in Parliament while the DP holds 42. A third coalition member, the HUN party, has eight.

At the very least, an end to the coalition will result in a cabinet reshuffle. The Democrats hold eight cabinet positions – these would need to be refilled if the party exits the coalition. One of these seats is held by DP leader L. Gantumur, who has threatened to step down as head of the party. 

The shake-up could also force Prime Minister Oyun-Erdene Luvsannamsrai to resign – he has previously said he would step down if the coalition were to break up. He is already up against mounting pressure to leave the job from the protesters assembled on Sukhbaatar Square in Ulaanbaatar.

Called back from Harvard

The protests were triggered earlier this month amid questions over transparency, centred on Oyun-Erdene’s son Temuulen, 23. Temuulen, who attends Harvard, has been called back to Mongolia as authorities probe his spending habits and lavish gifts given to his fiancée.

An online petition calling for the prime minister to resign has gathered over 58,000 signatures.

Amar Adiya, editor-in-chief of Mongolia Weekly, a business intelligence newsletter, says the political turbulence could stall important projects and economic initiatives for weeks or months.

He suggests the internal party strife could partly be coming from those who have lost confidence in the prime minister’s economic plans.

A slowdown in GDP during the first quarter of 2025 has some analysts worried – the economy grew by 2.4% year-on-year compared to 7.9% in the same period a year ago.

“The Oyun-Erdene administration’s emphasis on state-centric economic management has led those favouring a more private role in the economy to seek a pause on the government’s aggressive agenda,” Amar said. “This could impact and delay the government’s signature 14 megaprojects.”

Julian Dierkes, a Mongolia expert at the University of Mannheim, said on May 22 that nothing definite has been settled and it’s too soon to declare the coalition over. But he says that if the trend of events continues, a breakup of the ruling coalition could benefit the DP.

“If the DP has any chance of reviving and gaining credibility as an opposition party, leaving the coalition is essential,” said Dierkes.

As for potential challengers to the prime minister, Dierkes points to Amarbayasgalan Dashzegve, the current parliament chairman, saying: “Perhaps [he’s] unusual for Mongolian politicians in that he has appeared to be a genuine social democrat at times, that is, to have an actual ideological orientation and the desire to make the world a better place.”

“Any kind of political programme has been largely missing from other elected officials. [Amarbayasgalan] might be a bit different, perhaps,” adds Dierkes. “However, no substantive policy changes seem all that likely.”