Hungary’s fast-ascending Respect and Freedom party, led by former Fidesz insider Peter Magyar,  came within shooting distance of the ruling radical right-wing Fidesz party at the June 9 EP and local government elections, in the biggest political earthquake since Prime Minister Viktor Orban swept to power in 2010. The results confirm that the 42-year-old Magyar has pushed aside the ‘old opposition’ and has stepped up as the main challenger to Orban, who has been in power since 2010. 

In another likely defeat for the populist strongman, Sunday’s election marathon proved to be a nail-biter in Budapest, where the mayoral race between the incumbent liberal mayor and his challenger, backed by Fidesz, came down to a near dead heat, with just 324 votes keeping  Gergely Karcsony in power. A recount is being held.

Radical right-wing parties made headways at Sunday’s election across Europe, especially in Austria, Germany and France, but it was far from the breakthrough predicted by Orban.

Magyar is likely to join EPP, the European party grouping from which Fidesz was ejected in 2021.

Hungarian politics has entered a new era with the emergence of a new political power that looks like to have the potential to challenge and defeat Orban’s regime two years from now at the next general election, analysts said. 

Magyar’s novel political formation the Respect and Freedom party, set up less than three months ago, received more votes in the EP and local government elections than all other opposition parties combined and won seven seats in the European Parliament with 1.25mn votes, or 29.9% of the total, exceeding estimates. Voter turnout was a record high, despite the heat, and came close to 60%.

Fidesz was polling just below 50% in the last few days but ended up with just 44.3%, enough for just 11 seats in the EP, compared to 13 five years ago. The party gathered less than 2mn (1.9mn) votes, despite a massive all-out mobilisation in the last days of the campaign, characterised by unprecedented fearmongering by Fidesz and its leaders, together with a huge untransparent social media campaign.

Renowned Italian-Hungarian historian, Stefano Bottoni, the author of a book about Orban, forecast that if the margin of victory between Fidesz and Respect and Freedom was below 15pp, it could trigger crisis meetings at Fidesz HQ, and victory below 10pp could lead to early elections.

The old opposition, led by the leftist-liberal Democratic Coalition (DK), partnering with two smaller parties, suffered a crushing defeat on Sunday, winning 349,000 votes (8.2%) compared to 786,000 five years ago, enough for two mandates. Liberal Momentum, which finished third in 2019 with 10% of the votes, received 3.5% this time. Radical right-wing Our Homeland was the fourth faction exceeding the 5% threshold, enough for one mandate. 

A tired but fiery Magyar stepped on the podium on late Sunday night amid hundreds of enthusiastic fans at the party’s HQ on a cruise ship on the Danube.

"Today appears to be the Waterloo of Orban’s power apparatus, and the beginning of the end, he told a young and jubilant crowd, waving national flags and chanting the party’s main slogans.

According to Magyar, what has happened in recent months was a "political landslide", where lies clashed with truth, East confronted with West, and corruption with the promise of clean public life.

"We have proved that politics can be useful, fair, and most importantly, honest and it is possible to build a different kind of Hungary," he said.

The mood was subdued at Fidesz HQ, where  Orban put on a brave face, claiming victory.

"'To sum up the results of the European parliamentary election, we can send a telegram to Brussels that reads ‘Migration stop, gender stop, war stop, Soros stop, Brussels stop," he said, echoing its main message. 

Fidesz managed to retain the majority of major cities in Hungary and had not lost a seat in the capital, where the opposition held on its seats.

In the countryside, the ruling party remained the dominant force, but the party has seen its support decrease in types of settlements, from small towns to larger cities.

Orban ratcheted up a war psychosis to new levels in the final days of the campaign, accusing Hungary's EU allies of wanting a compulsory draft and to send fighting troops to Ukraine

At last week's rally, he told his supporters that the only way to avoid that scenario is to secure the largest margin of victory ever. Fidesz has never finished below the 50% threshold when in power. Its 44.4% score is the lowest on record, 3pp below the 47.4% reached in the first EP elections in 2004.

The ruling populists managed to win most of the county seats and remained the dominant force in the countryside and, but overall the party has lost 7-9pp support independent of settlements, from small to large municipalities. 

At 3am CET, the votes were still being counted in Budapest, which showed a race dead even between liberal incumbent Gergely Karcsony and David Vitezy, a technocrat backed by green party LMP and later by Fidesz, which pulled back back its own candidate just at the end.

Karacsony ended up winning the race by just the thinnest of all margins, 0.04% or 344 votes of the more than 733,000 cast. There will likely be a recount with the number of spoilt votes reaching 23,000, or 3% of the total.

The Respect and Freedom party finished a tad behind Fidesz in Budapest, winning 28% of votes on the party list and will send 10 representatives to the 33-member local council, the same number as Fidesz, giving them the balance of power. 

In the most affluent district of the capital, joke party Two-Tailed Dog party made history, winning its first mayoral position with 53% as the joint candidate of the opposition, 10pp ahead of Fidesz.

The ruling party suffered an embarrassing defeat in Gyor as well, a major industrial hub and a stronghold for the ruling party in a three-way race that included disgraced former Fidesz mayor Zsolt Borkai, who resigned the day after he was elected mayor in 2019 after the release of a sex-tape.

Borkai eventually received 27% of the votes that allowed the laughing third, a candidate of the local civil group, to take the post with just 31.5%, beating the incumbent Fidesz party by less than 500 votes.

Former joint prime minister candidate of the opposition Peter Marki Zay also retained his position in Hodmezovasarhely, which for long was a Fidesz bastion.