The upcoming June 3, South Korean presidential election is a pivotal moment for the nation's foreign policy, particularly concerning its relationships with China, Taiwan, and Japan.

The election follows the impeachment of President Yoon Suk Yeol, creating a political landscape ripe for change. The leading candidates, Lee Jae-myung of the Democratic Party and Kim Moon-soo of the People Power Party (PPP), present contrasting visions that could significantly influence South Korea's international alignments for years to come.

Lee Jae-myung (DP): Advocating pragmatic diplomacy

Lee Jae-myung, representing the liberal Democratic Party, is currently leading in the polls with 51% support compared to Kim Moon-soo's 29%.

Lee is known to emphasises a "pragmatic diplomacy" approach, seeking balanced relations with China and Russia while maintaining security ties with the US and neighbouring Japan.

He has previously criticised an over reliance on Washington and opposes rushing into new trade agreements, advocating instead for enhanced investment in artificial intelligence and semiconductor production incentives.

Kim Moon-soo (PPP): Strengthening traditional alliances

Kim Moon-soo meanwhile, as the conservative PPP candidate, has focused his campaign on deregulation, job creation, and increased R&D funding. He has repeatedly expressed an openness to discuss an increase in South Korea's share of the costs for hosting US troops, aligning with longstanding demands from President Donald Trump.

Kim is known to stress the importance of maintaining the US military presence on the Korean peninsula, and suggests South Korea could take on a larger share of its own defence, indicating a commitment to strengthening traditional alliances.

Foreign policy

China: On China, Lee's approach suggests a desire to balance relations with China, thereby avoiding direct confrontation while maintaining economic ties. His criticism of a long-time Korean dependency on Washington indicates a potential shift towards a more independent foreign policy long needed in Korea. Kim, on the other hand, appears much more aligned with decades olf US policies, which may lead to a firmer stance against China if elected.

Taiwan: On Taiwan, Lee's pragmatic diplomacy may result in a cautious approach towards Taiwan, as he aims to avoid escalating tensions with China. Kim's alignment with US interests, however, could translate into stronger support for Taiwan in direct contrast to his opponent in for the presidency, potentially increasing military and diplomatic backing for Taipei in the process.

Japan: On the age-old enemy across the Sea of Japan – East Sea on Korean maps - Lee has criticized Japan's historical revisionism and opposes what he sees as Japan's remilitarisation efforts, reflecting a more nationalistic stance.

Kim's PPP has a far more conciliatory approach towards Tokyo and does not seek direct compensation from Japan for historical issues that have long-since been settled according to the Japanese side and most international watchers in the region.

June 3 and beyond

The outcome of the June 3 election will significantly influence South Korea's foreign policy trajectory, potentially for years to come as the nation seeks to settle politically after six-months of turbulence surrounding the presidential office, a Lee Jae-myung presidency may steer the country towards a more balanced and independent foreign policy, cautiously engaging with China while maintaining critical perspectives on Japan.

Conversely, a Kim Moon-soo administration is more likely to reinforce traditional alliances with the US and Japan, while adopting a firmer stance against China and stronger support for Taiwan; arguably making him the preferred candidate across a region seeking to contain China in recent years.

As such, whichever way it goes, the result of the presidential election in Korea will play a crucial role in shaping both South Korea and the wider East Asia region’s geopolitical landscape for the foreseeable.