RFE/RL’s Radio Farda on February 2 reported that an apparent “highly confidential” leaked state document warning that discontent is rising in Iran, with society in a “state of explosion”, has fallen into its hands.

According to RFE/RL—a US-government-funded organisation that reports on countries where the "the free flow of information is either banned by government authorities or not fully developed”—the seven-page document highlights the Iranian clerical establishment’s concerns over potential social unrest that could eventuate due to Iran’s deteriorating economy, an economy crushed by crippling US sanctions and years of economic mismanagement.

The document allegedly comes from the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC), Iran’s elite military force, said Radio Farda. It was reportedly leaked by Edalat-e Ali (Ali's Justice), a hacktivist group that has previously disclosed secret documents and videos about the mistreatment of prison inmates in Iran.

RFE/RL noted that it could not independently verify the authenticity of the document.

The leaked document, said the media outlet, includes notes from a November 2021 taskforce meeting chaired by Brigadier General Hossein Nejat, a senior IRGC commander and deputy head of Sarallah, a key IRGC base that oversees security in Tehran.

The meeting of the Working Group On the Prevention Of A Livelihood-Based Security Crisis was attended by representatives from the IRGC, the volunteer Basij militia, the intelligence bodies and the Tehran Prosecutor's Office, according to the leaked document.

The meeting notes, said RFE/RL, quoted an official from the IRGC’s intelligence wing, referred to as “Mohammadi”, as saying that a survey conducted by the unit shows that public discontent in the country of around 84mn is threatening to boil over.

Describing some contents of the document, RFE/RL reported: “‘Society is in a state of explosion,’ Mohammadi said [in one passage], citing Iran's economic woes. He noted that ‘social discontent has risen by 300 percent in the past year.’

“Mohammadi also said that ‘several shocks’ in recent months have ‘shaken public trust’ in the ultraconservative government led by President Ebrahim Raisi, who assumed office in June.

“Mohammadi referred to soaring inflation, including hikes in the prices of food items, energy, and cars. He also noted the sharp declines in stock prices.

“A group of Iranian shareholders who suffered losses in recent months held a protest outside parliament in Tehran on January 20, saying a decline in stock prices was due to government policies. Some of the protesters chanted slogans against Raisi, calling him ‘a liar.’

“Stock market investors have held several similar protests in past months where they have accused government policies for their losses.”

Raisi and his cabinet ministers have pledged to deal with the stock market swings, partly caused by uncertainty over the fate of the ongoing Vienna talks between Iran and major powers aimed at reviving the 2015 nuclear deal.

“Currently, 53 percent of society is sceptical about the claims of the establishment,” Mohammadi was also cited as saying in the document.

The document also quotes an individual referred to as “Colonel Kaviani”. He is said to be an official from Iran's domestic security and law enforcement agency. Kaviani is quoted as saying that protests held in Iran over the current Iranian year (which ends on March 21) have increased by nearly 50%, with a near doubling of the number of protesters involved.

Official inflation in Iran over the last year has been around 40%. But Kaviani was quoted as saying that the real inflation rate for basic food items in November 2021 was between 86% and 268%.

Iranian teachers, pensioners, nurses, judiciary workers, oil workers and others have mounted street protests in the past few months, demanding higher pay and expressing their discontent at economic conditions.

Iran's Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei on January 30 admitted Iran's economic woes were not only caused by US sanctions. Government mismanagement had contributed, he said, talking of “wrong decisions” made by previous governments.