Hungarian Prime Minister Viktor Orban has escalated his campaign against Ukraine's accession to the EU over the past weeks, warning that it would divert vast amounts of funds away from existing members and imperil Hungary's security and economy.

The veteran leader, gearing up for a crucial election in 2026, convened an extraordinary economic meeting on May 24 with senior ministers, citing a looming "Ukrainian energy threat". This, he claimed could impose an additional HUF800bn (€2bn) annual burden on the state budget and warned that Hungarian households would face surging energy prices.

In a series of public statements, the 61-year-old leader warned that if EU policy evolves in line with Ukrainian demands, to further curtail or block Russian energy imports, electricity prices could double and gas bills more than triple without continued access to Russian supplies.

"This would ruin families," Orban said in a widely shared Facebook video, framing the issue as an existential cost-of-living threat tied directly to the EU's pro-Ukraine stance.

He accused Brussels of prioritising Ukrainian interests at the expense of EU members and called on voters to back the government's "non-binding referendum" on Ukraine's EU accession called Voks 2025, which is similar to previous national consultations with no legal weight.

At a rally a week earlier at the launch, Orban framed the debate as a nationalist struggle, casting the vote as a defence against Brussels and what he called a "pro-Ukrainian Tisza-Dobrev coalition" in Hungary, referring to the new and old opposition parties Tisza and DK, led by Klara Dobrev.

Hungary currently maintains one of the EU's most heavily subsidised household energy pricing regimes, with state-owned utility MVM receiving budgetary compensation through the utility protection fund.

Orban claimed that replacing Russian energy with alternative sources would effectively double this fiscal burden, undermining the affordability of the utility cost reduction scheme.

Hungary's dependence on Russian gas leaves it more exposed to supply shocks than most EU states, though experts say the government exaggerates the cost of switching sources.

Orbán's remarks also revive long-standing grievances about EU sanctions policy and Hungary's refusal to back further restrictions on Russian energy. "This isn't our war," he reiterated, suggesting that the EU should bear the fiscal cost of supporting Ukraine if it wants member states to follow suit on sanctions.

Critics argue that the government is leveraging fears of rising utility costs to bolster support for its anti-Brussels rhetoric.

Russia has not supplied gas to Hungary at discounted, non-market rates for years, says energy expert Attila Holoda. "The idea that Russian gas is inherently cheaper is a myth rooted in Soviet-era pricing," one expert commented, adding that "today's Gazprom prices track international benchmarks just like any other supplier." As for current tariffs, for households eligible for the preferential residential tariff, set at HUF99-102 (€0.25) per cubic metre, these are currently about 26% below prevailing spot prices (HUF134-138 per cubic metre); however, households above the subsidised threshold pay nearly HUF 760-780 per cubic metre, almost six times the actual spot price, a spread that critics label as arbitrary and misleading.

Other government officials have also echoed Orban's position in increasingly stark terms. Tristan Azbej, Hungary's state secretary for humanitarian aid, called Ukraine's EU integration plan "dangerous and harmful", while the government's anti-drug commissioner claimed membership would unleash "organised crime and drug trafficking" on Hungary.

Representatives from the agriculture sector warned that European farmers could lose up to 25% of their CAP funding, or around €400bn from the overhaul of the agriculture subsidy scheme after 2028. The fast-tracked accession of Ukraine would add some 40mn hectares of farmland to the EU, most of it in the hands of western European and transatlantic corporations. The flood of cheap wheat and maize would put Hungarian farmers at a disadvantage, they added. 

Viktor Orban, trailing in all polls except those tracked by government-controlled agencies, has also escalated his anti-Ukrainian rhetoric after Kyiv claimed to have uncovered a Hungarian spy network operating in western Ukraine on May 8. This prompted immediate retaliatory arrest and deportation of a Ukrainian national in Budapest.

The episode marked a significant escalation in the covert power struggle between Budapest and Kyiv, set against the backdrop of Hungary's growing alignment with Moscow.

Fidesz is using the espionage affair to intensify its anti-Ukrainian narrative, while simultaneously seeking to discredit the opposition Tisza Party by linking it to Ukrainian intelligence. Framing the issue as a matter of national security allows the ruling party to cast political opponents as threats to Hungary's sovereignty.

The spy scandal has already had tangible diplomatic consequences. Budapest has cancelled scheduled bilateral talks with Ukraine, citing a breakdown in trust. The freezing of dialogue threatens to derail ongoing negotiations over minority rights in Transcarpathia, the key issue Hungary has long cited as grounds for obstructing Ukraine's EU integration before engaging in all-out confrontation.