Japan is grappling with a major rice shortage, as stores struggle to keep up with demand and soaring prices put the staple food out of reach for many households. Despite government interventions, such as releasing emergency rice reserves, prices have remained high. By late February 2025, a 60kg bag of Koshihikari brown rice was still priced at JPY48,500 (approximately $324), as reported by Beikoku Databank.

Rice holds profound cultural and national significance in Japan, not just as a staple but as a symbol of the country’s heritage. The ongoing crisis threatens to disrupt this deeply embedded part of Japanese identity, with far-reaching implications for daily life.

Contributing factors

The root cause of the rice crisis is the growing unpredictability of climate conditions, as reported by Reuters. Extreme heatwaves in 2023 and 2024 devastated key agricultural regions. High summer temperatures hindered starch formation in rice grains, leading to lower-quality harvests and reduced yields. Typhoon Shanshan compounded the damage, further decimating crops already affected by the heat.

Besides the climate conditions, Japan’s government, aiming to diversify its agricultural sector, has unintentionally worsened the situation. Recent policies, including subsidies to encourage the cultivation of alternative crops, led many farmers to abandon rice production. As a result, domestic rice output has sharply declined at a time when demand surged, exacerbating the crisis.

Another factor contributing to the shortage is Japan’s ageing rural population. As younger generations have shown little interest in continuing agricultural work, many rice paddies have been left abandoned. This labour shortage, highlighted by The Japan Times, has left the rice sector underprepared to deal with the environmental shocks it faces.

Price inflation and public anxiety

Rice prices worldwide are climbing at an extraordinary rate, with Japan facing some of the heaviest effects. In 2024, costs rose by 27.7%, the most significant spike since 1975. By year-end, prices were 64.5% higher than the previous December, and by March 2025, the inflation rate had soared to 92.1%. As of April 2025, a 5-kilogram sack of rice cost approximately JPY4,220 (equivalent to $29.38), as reported by The Japan Times.

This inflation has led to widespread consumer panic, with many hoarding rice in anticipation of further price hikes. Grocery stores like Akidai in western Tokyo have seen near-empty shelves, and wholesalers have struggled to meet demand, according to Akidai’s president, Hiromichi Akiba.

Post-pandemic tourism has further stressed the supply chain, with restaurants and convenience stores facing heightened demand. To adapt, some retailers have reduced rice portions in ready-to-eat meals, while others have turned to cheaper alternatives, such as imported barley or foreign rice varieties.

Emergency reserves and imports

In February 2025, government officials in Japan released 210,000 tonnes of rice held in emergency reserves. Nevertheless, this action did not lead to the anticipated reduction in prices.

The first 150,000 tonnes were distributed via auction, with the remaining 60,000 held back. This move has not significantly alleviated the shortage.

In an unusual change of approach, NHK reported that Japan started sourcing rice from South Korea, marking the first such move in more than 25 years. A small initial shipment of two tonnes was followed by a further 20 tonnes. While modest, this marks a significant change in Japan’s approach to rice sourcing.

Officials are in talks to expand tariff rice purchases from the United States. The current cap of 350,000 tonnes could rise to 410,000 tonnes to help ease domestic pressure while adhering to World Trade Organisation obligations. These imports would supplement local production without drastically undercutting Japanese farmers.

Despite tariffs, private companies like Kanematsu Corporation are boosting rice imports. As an illustration, Calrose rice produced in the United States, costing around JPY500 per kilogram, continues to offer better value than locally grown varieties priced at approximately JPY900 per kilogram. In March 2025, the retailer OK began offering 5kg packs of Calrose for JPY3,335, tax included.

Rice export strategy and the innovative solutions

Although this may seem counterproductive during a domestic shortage, the Japanese government intends to increase rice exports, targeting 350,000 tonnes annually by 2030 as they aim to build a reserve that could be redirected to the local market during crises.

To address the challenges of climate change, the Japanese government is prioritising the development of rice varieties that can withstand high temperatures, as reported by Reuters. One promising variety, "emihokoro," is being tested at 31 locations by the Saitama Agricultural Technology Research Centre. These efforts are critical to ensuring that future rice crops can endure higher temperatures while maintaining marketable quality.

Maintaining high-quality rice is essential for both consumer satisfaction and farmers' livelihoods. Poor-quality rice reduces demand and lowers the income farmers can earn from their harvests, which could have long-term economic repercussions.

Although the 2024 harvest met national demand on paper, logistical challenges and consumer stockpiling continue to disrupt availability. Analysts from BMI predict that supply issues could persist into 2026, particularly if extreme weather events remain frequent.

Long-Term solutions

Experts argue that Japan must invest in long-term solutions to safeguard its rice supply. This involves progress in farming innovations, creation of crop varieties suited to changing climate conditions, and efforts to reinvigorate the agricultural labour force.  Without such reforms, Japan’s Ministry of Agriculture has warned in its Climate Change Adaptation Plan that rice yields could decline by 28% by the end of the century.

Japan’s rice shortage reflects a deeper, long-term issue rather than a temporary market fluctuation. It’s a wake-up call about the fragility of food systems in the face of climate change, ageing workforces, and geopolitical friction. From supermarket aisles to international trade negotiations, rice—a symbol of Japan’s identity—is now at the centre of a national reckoning.