Croatia’s EIZ forecasts double-dip recession for 2020

Croatia’s EIZ forecasts double-dip recession for 2020

The Coincident Economic Index of the Institute of Economics, Zagreb (CEIZ), a monthly composite business cycle indicator developed by the Institute of Economics, Zagreb. / EIZ

By bne IntelliNews December 16, 2020

The value of the Coincident Economic Index of the Institute of Economics, Zagreb (CEIZ), a monthly composite business cycle indicator developed by the Institute of Economics, Zagreb, showed a year-on-year decrease of 3.1 index points in October. The month-on-month decline was 0.1 index points.

This suggests that “economic activity, measured in GDP quarterly change rates, is slowing down very mildly in the fourth quarter of 2020 compared to the previous quarter,” said the EIZ.

“Considering the fact that the economy in the second quarter recorded a drop in quarterly GDP value and a growth in value in the third quarter, a drop of quarterly GDP in the fourth quarter suggests that the Croatian economy is going through a W-shaped recession, i.e. a double-dip recession,” it added.

The EIZ’s forecast is for the partial lockdown of the economy at the end of November and in December to lead to a more pronounced quarter-on-quarter fall in GDP in the final two months of the year.

Looking at the index components for October the number of tourist arrivals, state budget income from VAT revenues and industrial production volume index fell m/m in October.

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