US President Donald Trump’s threat to impose secondary sanctions on countries buying Russian oil is probably more symbolic than practical, a leading oil analyst and senior fellow at the Carnegie Russia Eurasia Center, Sergey Vakulenko, who is also an independent consultant to a number of Russian and international global oil and gas companies, said in an interview with Meduza.

Trump didn’t provide details of how his 100% secondary sanctions on anyone doing business with Russia, after a 50-day deadline expires, would work, but it is plain the threat was directed at China and Russia, which are buying the bulk of Russia’s oil exports. Trade between Russia and the US had fallen to $1.1bn in 2024, next to nothing, so imposing tariffs on imported Russian goods has no effect, and the US government would in effect be taxing itself, as it still relies heavily on Russia for enriched uranium supplies and some other critical minerals.

“If we interpret his remarks as building on Senator Graham’s bill, he’s likely referring to China, India and Turkey – the main buyers of Russian oil,” Vakulenko said. Smaller volumes also reach Hungary and Slovakia via pipeline, and even Saudi Arabia purchases Russian fuel oil for power generation, he noted.

The plan echoes US Senator Lindsey Graham’s proposed legislation mandating 500% tariffs on the buyers of Russian crude, with one big difference: Graham’s bill imposes the sanctions by law and obliges the government to impose the sanctions. Once those sanctions are on, they become very hard to remove, requiring Congress’ approval. In Trump’s version, the sanctions are imposed by presidential executive order, leaving Trump to withdraw them at any time with a simple signature on a new executive order.

Vakulenko questioned the feasibility of applying sweeping tariffs on such a broad group of countries, many of which are key US allies or strategic partners. “Logically, that would mean 100% tariffs on all imports from China, India and Turkey,” he said. But that approach, he argued, would be economically self-defeating.

He noted that Washington had already begun walking back tariffs on Chinese goods because “there are no real substitutes for Chinese imports” and US consumers ultimately bear the cost of the tariffs. “No matter how much Trump might want to impose punishing tariffs on China, the US simply can’t afford to do that right now,” he said.

Turkey presents a separate challenge. “Ankara is a critical player in the Middle East today, and it’s not in the US’s interest to pick a serious fight with it,” Vakulenko explained, as Turkey is playing a central role in regional diplomacy that has become fraught following the collapse of Syria.

Vakulenko also cast doubt on whether alternative oil sources could replace Russian supply. OPEC+ members are phasing out self-imposed production cuts of around 2mn barrels per day, but capacity concerns remain. Russia typically exports some 5mn bpd of oil, which other producers will struggle to cover, says Vakulenko.

“No one has enough oil to fully replace Russian exports,” Vakulenko said. “Even if countries spooked by Trump’s threats wanted to seek alternatives, they simply wouldn’t be able to find them… That inevitably leads to a price spike.”

Imposing sanctions on shipping would also have global repercussions. Russia has almost completely avoided oil sanctions thanks to its shadow fleet of tankers. US harsh oil sanctions introduced by the Biden administration have been surprisingly effective by targeting individual tankers, but as a large share of tankers in the shadow fleet carry oil for other countries, it is not possible to sanctions them all. Vakulenko warned that blacklisting tankers that transported Russian oil could “sideline a massive portion of the global tanker fleet,” disrupting flows from multiple producers. “That’s how the market works,” he said. “Disrupting that mechanism would cut off logistical infrastructure not just for Russia, but for everyone.”

Vakulenko said the Biden administration’s harsh sanctions had only a brief impact. “Their effect lasted about three weeks,” he said. “New loopholes were found, and within another three months, many of the tankers that had been targeted were back in service.”

Asked whether any measures could effectively constrain Russia’s energy revenues, Vakulenko said Western sanctions “throw sand in the gears” but do not alter the fundamentals. “They’ve concentrated nearly all of Russia’s exports in just three main countries and introduced a discount, even if it’s not especially large. But they haven’t managed to fundamentally disrupt Russia’s oil exports.”

As for Iran stepping in to fill the gap, Vakulenko was sceptical. “Even in the best-case scenario, it would take several years,” he said. “Iran exports around 1.8 to 1.9mn bpd. Suppose that figure increases by 500,000 barrels. Compared to the 5mn bpd that Russia exports daily, that’s barely a dent.”