Belarus reports 1% y/y GDP growth in January-May

Belarus reports 1% y/y GDP growth in January-May
The Belarusian economy grew by 1% year-on-year in January-May following a 1.4% y/y growth in January-April
By bne IntelliNews June 24, 2019

The Belarusian economy grew by 1% year-on-year in January-May following a 1.4% y/y growth in January-April, according to national statistics agency Belstat.

In April, the International Monetary Fund (IMF) revised downward its forecasts for the economic growth in Belarus in 2019 from 3.1% y/y to 1.8% y/y.

The move followed the World Bank's revision of the nation's GDP growth from 2.7% y/y to 2.2% y/y in 2019, from 2.5% y/y to 2.4% y/y in 2020 as well as from 2.5% y/y to 2.1% y/y in 2021. The World Bank said that the country's economic growth will depend on the results of Minsk's talks with Russia on compensation for the latter’s so-called tax manoeuvre in the oil sector.

In May, the European Bank for Reconstruction and Development (EBRD) revised downward its forecast for the growth of Belarus' real GDP in 2019 to 2% year-on-year from 2.5% y/y.

The multinational lender also forecasts GDP growth of 1.8% y/y in 2020. "Risks to the outlook have increased," according to the EBRD's May forecast. "The new energy taxation system being introduced by Russia, the so-called 'tax manoeuvre,' could significantly reduce revenues of Belarus' oil refining industry, thus affecting the fiscal balance and reducing economic and export growth."

Belarus' GDP grew by 3% y/y in 2018 after a 2.4% y/y expansion in 2017 after two years of recession. It contracted 3.9% y/y in 2015 following 1.6% y/y of growth in 2014.

Data

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