Investment professionals expect the contagion from coronavirus (COVID-19) in the Russian economy to peak in late-May, while seeing oil prices at $40 per barrel by the end of the year, BCS Global Markets said on April 21 citing its poll of over 600 equity and fixed income clients.

As reported by bne IntelliNews, unconfirmed reports claim that strict lockdown measures in Russia are likely to be prolonged to at least mid-May/beginning of June.

As for the most important question for the Russian investor – the outlook for the price of oil – a near consensus among all respondents was that prices would gain 35-40% from the average spot price for April 8-18 to $40+ per barrel by year-end. However, it must be noted that the results precede the most recent historic plunge of oil prices into negative territory.

The safer equity play choices in the current environment are seen in utilities, telecom (TMT), gold and retail segments, while transportation, oil & gas and banking are viewed as the riskiest.

On financial indicators, equity investors now see about 5-10% downside in the RTS index by end-2Q20, whereas corporates see it 5-10% higher. "Utilities are loved by local investors and fixed income funds, while TMT is a consensus Top 3. On the negative side, we note transport, banking and oil," BCS GM wrote.

At the same time, the retail investment audience is much more cautious on recovery timing, while the corporates (in utilities, telecom, metals and mining) feel lower COVID-10 impact, and big companies in general feel safer than their smaller sector peers.