The cut-off of almost all US humanitarian assistance to Afghanistan is helping to raise the possibility of a fresh refugee wave flowing into neighbouring states. 

The termination of most US assistance to Afghanistan was a prolonged process starting with an executive order issued by President Donald Trump in January, according to a study released by the Afghanistan Analysts Network (AAN), an independent non-profit policy research organisation.

“The full weight of the United States’ cuts to aid to Afghanistan has finally become clear. Almost all the aid that was promised – at least USD 1.8 billion – will now not be given, according to the US Special Inspector General for Afghanistan Reconstruction (SIGAR),” the study states.

The US State Department so far has not provided a list of all the terminated programmes that were administered by the US Agency for International Development (USAID), but according to SIGAR, the cuts mean the loss of roughly $765mn in humanitarian aid, and $1bn in support “for basic services.”

US assistance helped pay for essential goods, including food, fuel and medicine. In addition to creating shortages of essential items, the cutoff may create a shortage of cash, potentially creating hassles for everyday economic transactions. “The aid is largely in the form of cash dollars, necessarily flown in because of sanctions-related problems with making international banking transactions, and that helps with liquidity,” the study notes.

The World Bank, in its latest development update on Afghanistan, said cash-flow uncertainty was hindering an already slow economic recovery. The update added that even before the cutoff of US assistance, dwindling foreign support for Afghanistan was threatening the healthcare and education sectors, as well as social welfare programmes. “Key sectors such as healthcare, education, and social protection which have historically relied on international aid may face severe disruptions, disproportionately affecting marginalized populations, including women, children, and displaced communities,” the bank’s update states. 

Refugees who had fled the countries during the previous three-plus decades have been returning to Afghanistan in recent years, many of them from Pakistan. Tens of thousands of undocumented Afghans, however, can be considered reluctant returnees, deported by Islamabad. The looming shortages created by the fall-off in foreign aid could once again create strong pressure for an outward flow of humanity.

“In the short term, a humanitarian crisis looks likely, especially given that the mass deportation of Afghan refugees from Pakistan is only sharpening needs,” according to the AAN study. “The damage to health and education will also have an economic cost by reducing the country’s human capital.”

And in the near term, “there will be deaths,” the AAN paper quoted UN Under-Secretary-General Tom Fletcher as saying.

This report first appeared on Eurasianet here.