Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskiy was left scrambling to find a ride to Davos on January 21 after US President Donald Trump said in his speech to the forum that he would meet the Ukrainian president “later today.” The problem was that with little progress expected on US-Ukraine talks Zelenskiy had skipped the event.

Now Zelenskiy is expected to arrive today to meet Trump on the sidelines. He is racing to the Alpine resort for a high-stakes, hastily arranged meeting to continue negotiation on both the mooted Ukraine-Russia peace deal and a “Prosperity Package” to fund Ukraine’s post-war reconstruction.

The fate of the war remains in the balance as peace talks between Ukraine and Russia, brokered by the White House, remain in the balance but are currently stalled after an active round of diplomacy at the end of last year.

The latest draft proposals – circulated in late December – would largely freeze front lines where they stand, leave any small land swaps to a Ukrainian referendum, and create special economic zones in parts of the Donbas. A proposed three-way split of the Zaporizhzhia nuclear plant between the US, Russia and Ukraine remains a major stumbling block.

Ukraine needs guarantees. Europe needs reassurance. Trump badly wants to bolster his “peacemaker” image with a win. While Zelenskiy initially refused to attend Davos, the Kremlin envoy on Ukraine Kirill Dmitriev is attending the event and was scheduled to meet with Special Envoy Steve Witkoff and Trump’s son-in-law Jared Kushner. Both the US envoys are also planning to travel from Switzerland to Moscow to meet with Russian President Vladimir Putin later this week.

Witkoff and Kushner have already met with the Ukrainian Secretary of the National Security and Defence Council and head of the Ukrainian peace talks delegation, Rustem Umerov, who is in Davos.

Umerov told reporters the talks focused on security guarantees and a postwar recovery plan, including discussions with BlackRock, the US investment giant involved in rebuilding proposals.

Trump backtracks on EU Greenland tariffs

The main news from Davos so far is the US president had backtracked on a threat to impose 10% tariffs on EU countries that opposed US plans to take Greenland over, especially Denmark, that governs the island state.

Trump said January 21 that he’s reached an “infinite” framework deal with Nato on the future of Greenland after talks with Nato General Secretary Mark Rutte and will not impose tariffs he previously threatened. (During his speech, Trump repeatedly confused Greenland with Iceland.)

“Based upon a very productive meeting that I have had with the Secretary General of Nato, Mark Rutte, we have formed the framework of a future deal with respect to Greenland and, in fact, the entire Arctic Region. This solution, if consummated, will be a great one for the United States of America, and all Nato Nations,” Trump wrote in a Truth Social post from Davos, Switzerland.

“Based upon this understanding, I will not be imposing the Tariffs that were scheduled to go into effect on February 1st. Additional discussions are being held concerning The Golden Dome as it pertains to Greenland. Further information will be made available as discussions progress,” he continued.

Trump also emphasised that part of the deal would be “access to critical minerals while blocking Russia and China's ambitions in the Arctic.” During his speech Trump mentioned the extensive and largely untouched critical mineral deposits in Greenland, but down played US interest in these deposits. However, as bne IntelliNews reported, Trump’s foreign policy is largely driven by historic opportunity where he has sought to link almost all of his peace deals to significant mineral exploitation concessions. In the case of Venezuela, Trump has been explicit that the entire operation was designed to give the US oil companies access to Venezuela’s massive oil reserves in the Orinoco Belt.

On the face of it, Trump has been aggressively pushing to take Greenland over for US “national security reasons”. During his Davos speech he promised that he would not use force to take control of the island, although most believe the military option has not been entirely removed from the table.

“We probably won’t get anything unless I decide to use excessive strength and force where we would be frankly unstoppable. But, I won’t do that,” Trump said in Davos, speaking to the economic forum. “I don’t have to use force. I don’t want to use force. I won’t use force. All the United States is asking for is a place called Greenland,” he continued.

Speaking of his Nato deal, Trump said: “It’s the ultimate long-term deal, and I think it puts everyone in a pretty good position especially as it pertains to security and minerals and everything else.”

Critics have argued that the most damage to emerge from Trump’s plan to effectively annex territory from Denmark, both an EU and Nato member, is to undermine trust in both the US in general and Nato in particular.

Change of heart

A Ukraine peace deal is the other big ticket item on the agenda at Davos, but initially it appeared that no progress would be made. Kyiv has been pushing for progress on a $800bn “Prosperity package" from Western partners to fund the reconstruction of Ukraine should the war end. However, tensions over Greenland have distracted Western allies and a draft of the Prosperity plan that was due to be discussed on the sidelines of Davos was shelved leading to Zelenskiy decision to skip the event.

That changed rapidly after Trump said during his speech that he would meet Zelenskiy “today”, correcting himself in a post speech press debriefing to “tomorrow” after he was informed that Zelenskiy was not in Davos.

The day before Davos Zelenskiy cancelled his trip, warning a bilateral meeting would not take place “if partners are not ready.”

A lot of progress was made in peace talks in December which produced a 27-point peace plan (27PPP) backed by both Washington and the. Kremlin, but the process appears to have stalled after the Mar-a-Lago meeting on December 28 where Zelenskiy countered with a 20-point peace plan (20PPP) submitted to the Kremlin on Christmas Eve. The two sticking points remain the same: Bankova will not concede the whole of the Donbas to Russia; and Zelenskiy is insisting on real Article 5-like security guarantees from his Western partners which have not yet been forthcoming.

“We’re reasonably close,” the US president said at the summit, announcing he would meet Zelenskiy later in the same day. “I believe they’re at a point now where they can come together and get a deal done,” he said of Russia and Ukraine, adding, “And if they don’t, they’re stupid.”

Europe miffed at Trump’s aggression

Trump was scheduled to talk about improving the affordability of the cost-of-living in the UK, but went off script and delivered a long diatribe against Europe saying it was “not going in the right direction.”

Trump’s comments are a continuation of the tongue lashing Secretary of War Pete Hegseth gave Europe during his speech at the Munich Security Conference a little under a year earlier that shocked Europeans. It is also in keeping with the freshly released National Security Strategy (NSS) which significantly downgrades US-Europe relations.

Trump’s criticism of Europe has not played well with Europeans at Davos. Trump has bruised European egos , questioned the alliance and reminded allies that their American partners can turn on them as quickly as it turns on its enemies.

Those tensions came to a head after the head of the European Central Bank Christine Lagarde walked out of a World Economic Forum dinner that evening after US Commerce Secretary Howard Lutnick delivered a speech sharply critical of Europe, Reuters reports citing sources.

Lagarde left in the middle of dinner as Lutnick’s Philippic intensified, drawing heckles from the audience. Shortly after her exit, the hosts cancelled the rest of the dinner and did not serve the dessert.

The atmosphere at this year’s Davos is becoming increasingly fraught as what should be celebration of cooperation and mutual cooperation is riven by geopolitical and ideological tensions between the two Atlantic partners. Delegates are privately talking about mounting anxiety. One senior European official, granted anonymity to speak candidly, told the Kyiv Post that the Davos confab has become “the most fragile moment of the war diplomatically.”

“Everyone wants peace,” the official said, “but peace built on coercion, or on humiliating Kyiv in front of Moscow, will not hold. If the US signals that alliances are optional, the entire security architecture in Europe starts to wobble… We are watching a negotiation where the mediator is also the variable.”

Peace council

Trump continues his effort to dismantle the international order. His latest initiative is to try and establish an international conflict resolution “Board of Peace”, with himself as chairman and with a veto over any decisions the council makes.

So far 60 countries have been invited to the board that mirrors the functions of the UN, but remains entirely under US control. Nominally the Peace Council is being set up to end the Gaza conflict. Israel is one of the few countries that has already said it will join, along with Belarus. Russia remains on the fence.

“Russia will not join any so-called ‘Peace Council’ unless the full rights of the Palestinian people are guaranteed in accordance with UN resolutions.”

France and many of the Nordic countries have already opted out of the Peace Council, while close US allies and those countries pariahed in the West but seeking to rehabilitate their images are in.

Putin said he would meet with the US envoys on January 23, who will then travel on to the UAE to continue Middle East peace talks. Putin also suggested the $1bn membership fee Trump is demanding from those that want to join his council could be paid out of the $5bn of Russian assets frozen by the US government after the invasion of Ukraine in 2022. He also suggested the rest of the money could be contributed to the mooted US-Ukraine recovery fund that the White House has suggested as part of the 27PPP deal.

In the meantime, Putin has turned the screws on Ukraine with a massive drone and missile bombardment of the power infrastructure serving the biggest cities in the coldest part of winter.

Reports from Kyiv in the last two days suggest that thousands are fleeing the capital for dachas or accommodation in smaller settlements as temperatures inside the Soviet-era apartment blocks where most people live drop below zero.

The government and partners have warned of a mounting humanitarian crisis but no fatalities from the cold yet. Thousands of “invincibility points” – generator powered huts set up in courtyards – have been rolled out where residents can warm up, get some tea and recharge their phones. The cold weather, the worst in a decade, is expected to last through to the end of January before moderating somewhat.