Romania's public debt (chart) under the EU's ESA methodology increased marginally in April by only RON1.7bn (€327mn, +0.1% m/m) to RON1.17tn (€227.9bn), according to Finance Ministry data. Expressed in euros, the debt stock declined by 0.7% m/m due to exchange rate movements.

The public debt-to-GDP ratio edged up to 60.2% at the end of April from 60.1% a month earlier, exceeding the 60% Maastricht reference threshold for the first time in March. The publication of second-quarter GDP data is expected to result in a downward revision of the April ratio (possibly back under the 60% threshold) through a larger GDP denominator, although the threshold had already been surpassed at the end of March based on semi-final data.

During the first four months of 2026, Romania's public debt increased by €6.7bn, or €4.8bn after adjusting for exchange rate effects. This marks a significantly slower pace than the €34bn increase recorded during 2025 (and nearly €10bn in January-April 2025), reflecting the government's lower financing needs as the consolidated budget deficit narrowed to 1.2% of GDP in January-April from nearly 3% in the same period a year earlier.

For the full year, Romania's budget deficit is expected to decline to around 6.2% of GDP from 7.6% in 2025. Persistently high inflation is also expected to help contain the debt-to-GDP ratio, which increased by 10.2 percentage points over the previous two years to 59.3% at the end of 2025. In April, S&P Global Ratings projected the ratio would reach 60.4% by the end of 2026, while the European Commission forecast 61.6% in May.

Eurostat data for the first quarter of 2026, cited by Ziarul Financiar, showed Romania remained below the EU average public debt ratio of 82.9% of GDP, although it recorded the fourth-largest annual increase at 4.3 percentage points due to the sharp advance during the last three quarters of last year. Compared with the fourth quarter of 2025, however, Romania posted the smallest quarterly increase among EU member states, at 0.8 percentage points.

Across the EU, Greece recorded the highest public debt ratio at 143% of GDP in the first quarter, followed by Italy (138%), France (117%), Belgium (109%) and Spain (101%). The lowest ratios were reported in Estonia (25%), Denmark (26%), Bulgaria (28%) and Luxembourg (29%). Finland, Bulgaria, Poland, Romania and France posted the largest annual increases, while Greece, Cyprus, Slovenia, Portugal, Denmark and Spain recorded the biggest declines.